Crisis-Analysis
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The Coronavirus crisis is an unprecedented and incomparable crisis to what the modern world has already
experienced. Why?
A global crisis that affects all countries in an extremely short time (4 months).
Not comparable to a post war crisis (such as WWII crisis):human losses are less significant and labour forces practically
intact, the means of production and consumption are physically still present and intact, and no vehicle in the fleet has been
destroyed.
Not comparable to a financial crisis (such as 2008 crisis). The 2008 crisis, despite its magnitude, did not prevent economic
and industrial activities from continuing to operate. In addition, it was not uniform: China relatively offset the decline in other
markets globally in 2008.
Actually, the only point of comparison which can be used to understand the impact of this crisis is what China is currently
experiencing. It means that we have an history of only two months of data and information to create potential scenarios.
And even, with China example, we have to be cautious if we intent to make a comparison with other regions as Europe
(or North America):
- The COVID-19 has “mainly” impacted one Province, the Hubei Province (nearly 60 millions inhabitants) and its capital
(nearly 11 millions inhabitants including surroundings), which is nearly the size of a main European country, while almost
all European countries or US states have been shutdown.
- The Chinese market still remains a first buyer market, while in Europe the market is already saturated.
- The Chinese economy is centrally controlled and the government can use very powerful levers.
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