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Update: 4 May 2020
Note: Forecasts will be soon updated following the analysis of latest information and data collected.

This Covid19 Information/Data Platform is dedicated to a support brought by INOVEV to the automotive industry 
so that that they make sure to get the right information which will enable them to anticipate the automotive production and adapt their resources in accordance after the end of lockdowns.

At the date of this publication, the data and analyses relate to Europe.
A study relating to other regions of the world (in particular Asia and North America) is in process and its results will be added soon.

Production plants have closed in most countries during one month minimum.The lost volumes during this closure period can be calculated easily. But it is not the main factor to take into account in order to estimate the levels of automotive production in the next months. The main factor is the demand from users. And it is a very uncertain factor.

Automotive industry will have to reorganise its production in the next weeks and next months to:
- Manufacture the cars ordered before the crisis and which could not been produced during the lockdown period.
- Respond to the new orders which will be passed after the re-opening of the dealers.
- Make sure that they keep a suitable level of stock.

In a first phase when plants reopen, there are a lot of cars to produce, which are all the cars that have been ordered before the lockdowns in the different production countries. But when all the production will have been caught up, we will get back to the level of cars corresponding to the orders.

And here is the big question mark: Will the demand be at the rendez vous?

If the demand is weak, the car industry will have to use only a part of its capacities.
In summary, the car industry will have to produce a lot at the exit of the lockdowns but has the risk after that to face a fall in production. The car companies could consequently reopen more slowly that needed, postponing the manufacture of ordered cars, in order not to have a too drastic fall of their production and indeed to keep a regular flow of production, even if it is lower than usual.

In order to calculate on solid bases the levels of production in the next weeks and the next  months, Inovev has constructed a simulation model taking as input data assumptions relating to the lost production during lockdon periods and demand after lockdown: the PAMM simulation model.
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A very complete information with tables, graphs, analyses, files to download (Excel, pdf and Powerpoint files) is available for  Premium members.
Premium members benefit from all the informatin relating to the coronavirus crisis, but also in addition the information related to the automotive market.
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