Europe 2024 production forecasts: Inovev expects lower growth in 2024
- The world production volume of light vehicles (PC+LUV) increased by 9% over the 10-months of 2023 and will probably increase by 10% over the 12-month cumulative. For Europe, it increased by 10% over the 11-months 2023 and will probably increase by 10% over the 12-months.
- The PC+LUV production volume in Europe (EU + UK) will reach 14.36 million units in 2023, compared to 13 million in 2022, 13.1 million in 2021 and 13.4 million in 2020. Despite this improvement of production in 2023, due in particular to the delivery of orders not delivered in 2021 and 2022, the European production volume in 2023 remains very much lower than the recent years before Covid-19: 18.4 million units in 2017, 18 million in 2018 or 17.7 million in 2019.
- The production increase in 2023 does not predict an equivalent pace in 2024. Inovev is counting on a lower growth next year, with an order of magnitude between 1% and 5% due to orders completely delivered in 2023, a slow-growing automobile market and a low growth rate in sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) due to the end or decrease of subsidies in some major European markets, high vehicle prices and the lack of affordable products in smallsegments.
- The arrival of Chinese carmakers in Europe – in terms of production – may only take place in 2025 or even 2026, and therefore the year 2024 will not benefit from an additional production contribution. On the contrary, factories will run slow, like the Ford factories in Germany or the Vauxhall factories in England. The success of Chinese cars imported from China may have a negative impact on automobile production in Europe.