- The new 25% additional tariffs on vehicles imported from the EU and UK, imposed by the US administration on April 5, sheds light on the flow of vehicles between these two regions of the world.
- In 2024, according to Inovev's calculations, approximately 860,000 passenger cars were exported from Europe : 730,000 from the European Union and 130,000 from UK. According to Eurostat and the SMMT, just over 900,000 vehicles were exported from Europe: 806,000 from the European Union (source Eurostat) and 102,000 from Great Britain (source SMMT). The USA is the leading destination for European vehicle exports, representing approximately 21.5% of total European exports.
- Of these exported vehicles, 42% are D-segments, 28% E-segments and 20% C-segments. The leading exporting automobile groups are the German carmakers: 26% from the VW group, 24% from Mercedes and 19% from BMW. This is followed by the Geely group (in fact Volvo) with 13% of exports and the Tata group (Land Rover, Jaguar) with 12%.
- What impact could this new additional tariffs have on European exports to the USA? It will initially depend on the duration of this measure: 1 month? 1 year? More? The duration of this measure could depend on the pressure that could be exerted both by carmakers on American soil (carmaker and supply chains) but also by the distributor network which risks seeing a drop in sales in the short term (in the event that there is NO buying transfer to models produced on American soil). In addition, the rate of this surcharge could also vary over time if negotiations open between the USA and Europe. If this additional tariffs were to run throughout 2025 at a constant rate of 25%, Inovev estimates that exports could decrease by 200,000 units compared to 2024 .
- C and D segment vehicles could be the most affected, such as the Mercedes GLC (D segment SUV), Volvo XC60 (SUV-D), Mercedes C-Class (Sedan-D) or Audi Q3 (SUV-C), which are in the TOP 5 vehicles exported from Europe and for which a tax increase could significantly impact the final sale price and therefore a portion of the customer base. In addition, some carmakers could be tempted to interrupt deliveries of their vehicles while waiting for better visibility on the duration of this measure.
- If this measure were to continue beyond 2025 (or even 2026), European carmakers could adjust their industrial strategies: transfer of production of certain models, addition of production lines in the event of saturation of capacities, or even construction of a new plant. Especially since for German carmakers, other plants outside Europe are also affected, mainly from Mexico. These subjects relating to production plants will be analyzed in more detail in the next edition of AutoAnalyses.
分析
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