The European market (VP) in the first quarter of 2020
- The European car market will suffer a terrible shock in 2020, due to the coronavirus crisis, a shock which could be even more violent than those caused by the first oil shock (1974 sales down 12% compared to 1973) , by the economic crisis of 1993 (1993 sales down 15% compared to 1992) or by the financial crisis of 2008 (2008 sales down 8% compared to 2007) even if it had repercussions for several years (2013 sales down 27% compared to 2007). Before the epidemic arrived in Europe, the European market had already fallen by 7.4% in January 2020 and by 7.1% in February 2020. With the closure of most factories and concessions in Europe to From mid-March 2020, the European market is likely to fall by 40% to 50% in March 2020 and therefore by around 25% in the first quarter.
- But the hard part is yet to come. With a total containment of people and a total shutdown of factories and European concessions in April, it is likely that the European market in April will be close to zero. May is likely to be comparable if containment measures are extended until June 1. If containment measures are halted or relaxed in May, the market could slowly recover. It is especially from June that we could witness a real recovery in the market, but the balance sheet for the second quarter of 2020 will be the worst since the end of the Second World War, with a possible drop of 50%. at 60%. Given these factors, the year 2020 could end with a drop of around 40% in the European passenger car market if the various European governments do not introduce massive aid to revive the market.
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