European market forecast 2021-2025
- At the onset of the coronavirus crisis in Europe, Inovev had its forecast for the European market for 2020 and 2021 to adjust to new market circumstances. Thus, three scenarios had been constructed. The first (optimistic) reported a 25% decline in the European market over the year as a whole, the second (conservative) reported a 32% decline, the third (pessimistic) a 38% decline.
- Taking into account the 26.1% drop in the European passenger car market observed over the cumulative first 11 months of 2020 and the 19.3% drop in the European light commercial vehicle market over the same period, the decrease concerning light vehicles (PC + LCV) is 25.3% over the first eleven 11 months.
- We can therefore expect a fall in the European market close to 25% over the cumulative 12 months of 2020, therefore close to Inovev forecasts of the optimistic scenario. However, this result will be significantly worse than the result of the world market (-15%) as a whole. The volume of European registrations will therefore represent around 13.8 million units in 2020, compared to 18.4 million units in 2019 and 18.3 million in 2018.
- From 2021, Inovev forecasts a slow and gradual restart of the European market, which should grow by around 9% in 2021 to 15.1 million vehicles, from 3% in 2022 to 15.5 million units, from 2, 7% in 2023 to 15.9 million units, from 2.2% in 2024 to 16.3 million units and from 1.4% in 2025 to 16.5 million units. According to Inovev, we will not return to 2019 levels before 2030 in Europe. Globally, we will return to 2019 levels as early as 2024.
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