European market in 2030: What realistic scenarios?
- 2030 is the year of all objectives for light vehicle manufacturers and for the authorities, through CO2 objectives. Almost all car manufacturers have announced their plans to meet the CO2 targets set by the European Commission. These objectives will also be updated by the end of the first half of 2022. In anticipation of the new objectives, some manufacturers have already announced their ambitions to switch to the production of 100% electric vehicles in 2030, such as Renault or Ford, while others remain for the moment on BEV + PHEV mix objectives, like the brands of the VW group. But are these objectives realistic and will the European market be ready by 2030 to respond favorably to this future new offer of electric vehicles?
- To answer these questions, Inovev has constructed several scenarios to determine the mix of new vehicles sold in Europe in 2030. These scenarios take into account the forces driving the electrification of the offer but also the obstacles to be lifted to enable the market to respond favorably to this future supply of vehicles. These strengths and brakes are well known today and are detailed in the following pages.
- In parallel with these scenarios, Inovev has also calculated two scenarios relating to the mix of vehicles necessary to meet the CO2 objectives of 2030. These are purely supply-related calculations and therefore do not take demand into account. of the market. This calculation makes it possible to establish the bases of comparison with the three other Inovev scenarios.
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