- According to the OECD, global GDP growth is expected to be 3.3% in 2025 compared to 3.2% in 2024. In OECD countries, this growth is expected to be more modest, around 1.9% in 2025. In other countries, a slight decline in overall growth is expected, except in emerging Asia (India and Southeast Asian countries). In this context, global automobile production in 2025 is expected to show very low growth, even if it is not solely dependent on GDP growth.
- Global production should be supported by China, which saw its market grow by 5.2% (1.4 million passenger vehicles) and its automobile production by 5.5% (1.5 million passenger vehicles) last year, and which should see its market and production grow by 2.5% to 5% in 2025, (+1 million passenger vehicles in volume), thanks, in addition to its domestic market, to European markets (despite the introduction of additional taxes in the EU) and to ASEAN countries.
- The US market is cyclical and last year's results are close to the highest figures recorded by this market (16 million passenger vehicles + pick-ups). Inovev is therefore counting on a stable or slightly declining US market, even if the production volume should increase slightly. Despite the proactive policy of encouraging production in North America, this should not have massive effects in 2025.
- The European market should be stable compared to 2024. There are no signs of a vigorous recovery of this market, nor of a recovery in its production. The Chinese BYD will start production in Europe in the second half of 2025 and Volkswagen's more affordable small electric models will not arrive before 2026. The ramp-up of small battery electric models in France (R5, R4) will not alone support European production as a whole.
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年度分析报告
