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 Background

ØThe impact of coronavirus at short-, medium-, and even long-term will be significant for the automotive industry.
ØAt short term, we will face a double crisis, as it never happened since the World War II (WW2):
An extremely severe decline in production, with a total stop in many countries, however not on the same periods of time.
An expected severe decline in the demand, as consumers will:
-Have much less money to spend on non first-necessity goods.
Of course cars are considered by most people as a first necessity good but replacing their current one will not be a first necessity.
-Have deep fears that the “coronavirus crisis” can rebounce, even after it will be stopped, or new diseases can outbreak at any time.
-Take new habits, with new ways of working and leisuring.
ØThe situation will depend very much on the governmental actions taken all around the world.
But using normal levers of in-place economic system cannot work.
States will be led to take after-war measures (as it was the case in Europe after WW2 with the Marshall plan) , such as
nationalisations, debt write-off, restrictions, management of boarders, …
These actions cannot be anticipated today and it is therefore very difficult to construct consequently close-to-real forecast.
However  our company
Inovev is building and will continuously update scenarios as realistic as possible to guide the automotive industry in their thinkings, strategies, and action plans.
ØIn the current document we provide a first short term analysis concerning Europe, with 4 scenarios based on a “crisis” assumption:
2 scenarios with an assumption that the demand will continue to be there after the crisis.
It is generally scenarios brought to the front by the carmakers.
2 scenarios with a lackluster post-crisis demand.

ØThis analysis will be updated each Tuesday morning, taking into account the latest information.
Premium customers of Inovev:
will have the possibility to download, within the frame of their subscription, all the data and analyses relating to the coronavirus crisis.
Will be  informed by email for those who wish it.

 Methodology 

The methodology built by 
Inovev lies on the following bases:
 
Ø 4 scenarios
• Scenarios without fall of demand after the crisis:
scenarios 1 and 2
Losses due to production and demand falls during the epidemic period
üAssumption 1: 4 weeks.
üAssumption 2: 8 weeks.
Demand in 2020 at 2019 level (unrealistic assumption, only for calculation):
üfall in sales during the epidemic period and a little further.
üCatch-up in the following months.
• Scenarios with losses during the epidemic period and,
in addition a lackluster demand after the crisis:
scenarios 3 and 4
 
ØAssumption about an evolution of the demand in European countries
-By country.
-By type of vehicles.
 
ØTransformation of this demand (registrations) into production data:
By plant.
- By model.
 
More

Graph relating to the production Europe-Forecast-Total-202003224 and map by plant Europe-Forecast-Plant-202003224 are available upon registration.
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