Forecasts for BEV production in the UK in 2030
- Inovev estimates that between 167,000 and 207,000 electric vehicles (BEVs) could be produced in the UK by 2030. Currently, a total of five manufacturers are expected to make their mark on future BEV production in the UK: Renault-Nissan with the Nissan brand, BMW with the Mini brand, Tata with the Land Rover brand, Toyota and Stellantis with Citroën, Peugeot and the Opel brand, which will be marketed there under the name Vauxhall. All the British BEV production sites of these brands are located in England.
- According to Inovev, the largest BEV production is at the Nissan plant (part of the Renault-Nissan Group) in Sunderland, where the all-electric version of the Nissan Leaf is manufactured. The second largest BEV production in the country will likely be at the Ellesmere Port plant, which Stellantis and Toyota share. It's unclear what will happen to Mini's BEV production in Cowley, which could be the third largest in the country, as Mini plans to have its BEVs produced in China in the future. According to Inovev's forecasts, none of the sites mentioned will be able to reach a significant production volume of 100,000 BEVs or more by 2030.
- UK car production will face several challenges in the future. EU plans mean that the European market could be fully electrified from that date. Despite the Brexit, this market is critical to the UK automotive industry, but that same Brexit could make it more difficult for manufacturers and customers to produce and purchase BEVs due to import duties and controls. In addition, Britishvolt's Gigafactory project is under severe threat, which would put even more pressure on BEV production in the country. One wonders what the point of such a Gigafactory is with a future volume of less than 210,000 electric vehicles, which is less than Italy. Older British brands like Jaguar and MG have their BEVs manufactured abroad, Land Rover currently only offers PHEVs, but will set up small BEV production at the Halewood and Solihull sites. A departure of the Mini could further marginalize an already weak production. In short, the Brexit seems to put the UK's future automotive industry in jeopardy.