Vehicle exports from Europe could fall by 6% between 2022 and 2024
- In 2022, the European automobile industry (EU + UK) exported nearly 4.4 million light vehicles (passenger and utility vehicles) according to ACEA and Eurostat. The ACEA statistics do not specify whether these are only new vehicles but according to the Inovev analysis, the statistics include new and used vehicles. However, the vast majority of vehicles exported from European soil remain new vehicles. We can therefore estimate that in 2022, just under 30% of new vehicles produced in Europe were exported.
- For many years, the USA has been the leading buyer of vehicles produced in Europe (mainly from Germany and the UK) with around 17% of European exports. China has been importing a constant level of vehicles for several years, between 400,000 and 480,000 units each year. Note that Ukraine imported a high volume of vehicles in 2022, but we can reasonably assume that these are mainly used vehicles.
- What are our forecasts for export from Europe in 2023 and 2024? For these forecasts, Inovev systematically establishes 3 scenarios: a low, reference and high scenario. In our reference scenario, we forecast a drop in exports which could reach a volume of 4.2 million light vehicles in 2023 and 4.1 million units in 2024. Exports are therefore expected to fall by 6% between 2022 and 2024.
- This scenario of decreasing exports is explained by an increasingly strong regionalisation of markets (as opposed to globalization) and which is mainly reflected in the desire of major countries purchasing European vehicles to protect their local industries. This is the case of the USA, which has implemented for at least 3 years a policy favouring local production (at least in the NAFTA zone) and increasing barriers to entry into its territory. This is also the case for China, which has not revised its import taxes, but which thanks to the strong growth of battery electric vehicles (BEV), and in particular Chinese brands, is managing to regain hand in its local market. We can consider here that it is rather a technological barrier, since the vehicles currently produced in China by Chinese brands have more attractive products and more affordable prices than the vehicles offered by European brands and that the majority of European products exported to China remain thermal vehicles.