Production forecast France 2023-2030
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Production forecast France 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest forecast for passenger car (PC) and light truck (LUV) production in France assumes that production volumes will recover from 2023 onwards. French car production had fallen to a low point in 2022, following extremely poor years in 2020 and 2021 due to the Corona crisis (2020) and the semiconductor crisis (2021). In 2022, these crises are compounded by the consequences of the war in Ukraine. Overall, French automotive production (PCs+LUVs) has fallen from 2.2 million units in 2019 to less than 1.5 million units in 2020, 2021 and 2022.
- The catch-up process, which will take place between 2023 and 2027, depends on the end of the semiconductor crisis and the end of the war in Ukraine. This is Inovev's reference scenario, and France should return to the level of 2 million vehicles produced per year between 2027 and 2030.
- This catch-up will be all the more possible because, on the one hand, Renault has decided to concentrate its production of electric vehicles in France (in the Hauts de France region: Douai and Maubeuge) and, since sales of electric cars will increase sharply (thus meeting the European Commission's request), the Hauts de France region will see a sharp increase in its car production. In addition, Renault has announced that they plan to produce 700,000 vehicles in France by 2030. Finally, Stellantis has decided to put an end to relocations. The future Peugeot 3008 and 5008 will be produced in France, as will the 308, 408 and 508 models.
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Production forecast Germany 2023-2030
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Production forecast Germany 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest production forecasts for passenger cars (PC)+ light utility vehicules (LUV) in Germany are rather pessimistic, as Germany will never again reach the level of 2010-2017, i.e. a volume of 6 million vehicles per year, but only 4 million vehicles per year.
- These forecasts take into account a catch-up from 2023 onwards, after a very poor performance in 2020, 2021 and 2022 due to the Corona crisis (in 2020), the semiconductor crisis (in 2021) and then the consequences of the war in Ukraine (in 2022). German automotive production (PC+LUV) thus fell from 5 million units in 2019 to less than 3.5 million units in 2021 and 2022.
- Other factors worked against German production, such as relocations (which occurred later than in France), the reduction of exports to China (in favor of local production), the difficulty of manufacturers to switch from fossil combustion engines to electric cars and probably to produce fewer but more expensive vehicles. This factor has probably contributed to a decrease in production volume at Volkswagen, Audi, BMW and Mercedes. In addition, there is the collapse of the American brands based in Germany (Opel and Ford). Ford, for example, has planned to close its Saarlouis plant in the near future. Symbolizing the end of German supremacy, the Volkswagen Golf has not been the best-selling model in Europe since 2022, and the ID3 is not the most popular electric car in Europe as announced.
- Inovev expects 4 million vehicles to be produced annually in Germany between 2024 and 2030.
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Production forecast United Kingdom 2023-2030
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Production forecast United Kingdom 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest forecast for passenger cars (PC) + light utility vehicules (LUV) production in the UK (currently England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) shows a modest catch-up from 2023, with a peak of one million vehicles per year in 2026 and 2027. This figure is still a far cry from the peak in 2016 and 2017, which was over 1.75 million units per year.
- Since those years, U.K. automotive production has suffered several shocks: first, Brexit (the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union) has led to an increase in U.K. costs, which in turn has led to the departure of Honda (Swindon) and capacity reductions at Vauxhall (Ellesmere Port), as well as Nissan (Sunderland) and Toyota (Burnaston). Production at Jaguar (Castle Bromwich) and Land Rover (Solihull) was also severely affected. Incidentally, the Castle Bromwich plant will close in 2024. The production volume of passenger cars+LUV in the UK thus dropped from 1.75 million units in 2017 to 1.35 million units in 2019.
- Then came the Corona crisis (2020), the semiconductor crisis (2021) and the consequences of the war in Ukraine (2022). Production volumes continued to fall: 975,000 in 2020, 935,000 in 2021, and 725,000 in 2022. In the UK, the number hasn't been this low since 1952! The next few years don't really get any better: Inovev forecasts one million units in 2026 and 2027, but 900,000 in 2028 and 2029 and 825,000 in 2030. The fact that the UK is not part of the European Union will remain a constant problem unless the country decides to become a manufacturing base for chinese brands.
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Production forecast Italy 2023-2030
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Production forecast Italy 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest forecast for passenger cars (PC) + light utility vehicules (LUV) in Italy foresees a catch-up process starting in 2023, after the three mediocre years of 2020, 2021 and 2022 due to the Corona crisis (2020), the semiconductor crisis (2021) and the consequences of the war in Ukraine (2022).
- The catch-up process from 2023 will be reinforced by the expansion of production at Mirafiori for the Fiat 500 e with electric drive, which will gradually replace the Fiat 500 with internal combustion engine produced in Poland. The Melfi site will accommodate new products (100% electric) from 2024. The Cassino site will ramp up production with the expansion of sales of the Alfa Tonale and its derivative, Dodge Hornet.
- The Val di Sangro site has just started production of the Opel Movano (previously manufactured in France by Renault) and will start production of a Toyota derivative of the Opel Movano in 2024.
- However, the Val di Sangro plant will not increase its production volume, as Stellantis' management has decided to manufacture part of its production at the Gliwice plant in Poland, which will be reduced by the production of the Opel Astra from 2022.
- Overall, production volume in Italy is expected to reach 825,000 units in 2026 and 2027, a far cry from the million units reached in 2017. In 2030, this production volume is not expected to exceed 750,000 units, roughly the same level as in 2020 or 2010. The yoyo rhythm is typical of Italy's automotive production.
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Production forecast Europe 2023-2030
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Production forecast Europe 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest forecasts of passenger cars (PC) + light utility vehicules (LUV) production for Europe 29 countries show a catch-up process after the collapse of European production in 2020, 2021 and 2022 as a result of the Brexit in the UK, the Corona crisis (2020), the semiconductor crisis (2021) and then the consequences of the war in Ukraine (2022).
- PC+LUV production volume decreased from 18.5 million units in 2016 to 18.0 million units in 2018, then to 13.5 million units in 2020, 13.0 million units in 2021, and 11.25 million units in 2022.
- Inovev assumes a gradual rebound in which the effects of the various crises mentioned above are felt less and less. In this reference scenario assumed by Inovev, European production could again exceed the 13 million mark in 2023, the 14 million mark in 2024, and the 15 million mark in 2026. It will remain at this level until 2029. However, it will be far from the 2015-2019 figures (a total volume almost 20% lower than in these previous years).
- This scenario takes into account that customers accept the high prices of European electric vehicles, but also that sales of electric vehicles from China, which are offered at lower prices, increase.
- If a large proportion of customers reject the high price of European electric vehicles and instead switch massively to Chinese vehicles or other means of transport, the volume of car production in Europe could be 10% to 20% lower than the annual production volume forecast by Inovev.
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