Evolution of global automobile production since 1900: the exceptional rise of China
- The volume of global automobile production has steadily increased since the end of World War II, climbing from 0 to 90 million vehicles (PC+LCV) from 1945 to 2024.
- This upward curve was, however, interrupted by small crises and by larger crises such as the first oil shock (1973/1974), the second oil shock (1979/1980), the financial crisis of 2008/2009 and the Covid crisis (2020). In 2023 and 2024, the curve stagnates at 90 million units, whereas 95 million units were reached in the years 2016/2017/2018.
- Are we witnessing the beginning of a stagnation in global automobile production, or will it gradually increase to reach 100 million units? This is the question that must be asked.
- While global automobile production (passenger cars and light utility vehicles) has continued to grow from 1945 to 2018, the relative position of countries has changed significantly.
- The USA was the main producer until 1960.
- Europe became the equal of the USA in the 1960s before supplanting them.
- Japan emerged in the 1970s and became the equal of the USA in the 1980s and 1990s.
- At the same time, emerging countries are starting their automobile production in earnest.
- We observe a stagnation or even a slow decline in the USA, Europe and Japan from the year 2000, in the face of the progress of emerging countries like India and Korea, but especially China which is experiencing rapid and exponential growth unknown until then.