Germany remains the largest European producer of BEVs and PHEVs over 9 months 2024
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Germany remains the largest European producer of BEVs and PHEVs over 9 months 2024
- Production of xEVs (BEV+PHEV+HEV) in Europe (30 countries: EU + UK + Switzerland + Norway) reached 2,212,902 units over the first 9 months of 2024 compared to 2,223,905 in the first 9 months of 2023, representing a decrease of 0.5%.
- BEV production decreased by 7% (1,146,528 units compared to 1,231,584), while PHEV production increased by 4% (531,444 units compared to 509,650) and HEV production increased by 11% (534,930 units compared to 482,671).
- Despite these results, BEVs still represent 52% of xEVs production in Europe in 2024 (compared to 55% in 2023). It seems that some customers this year preferred to opt for full-hybrid (HEV) or even plug-in hybrid (PHEV) rather than choosing battery electric (BEV).
- By country, the largest European producer of xEVs in 2024 remains Germany (because it is the largest European producer of BEVs and the largest European producer of PHEVs) which alone represents 40% of xEVs production in Europe (60% of BEVs, 40% of PHEVs and 0% of HEVs), with 911,681 units in the first 9 months of 2024 compared to 865,187 in the first 9 months of 2023. France is the second largest European producer of xEVs(373,701 units in the first 9 months of 2024 compared to 363,521 in the first 9 months of 2023) thanks to the production of 224,584 HEVs (Mazda 2, Toyota Yaris and Yaris Cross) which represents 40% of HEV production in Europe. Spain is the third largest European producer of xEVs(291,697 units in the first 9 months of 2024 compared to 290,820 in the first 9 months of 2023) which is still waiting for the launch of small battery electric cars in segments A and B.
BYD plant in Szeged (Hungary) to start operations at the end of 2025
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BYD plant in Szeged (Hungary) to start operations at the end of 2025
- The Chinese carmaker BYD has gradually become the largest Chinese carmaker and the leader of the Chinese market thanks to its range of plug-in hybrid vehicles (of which it has become the largest producer in the world) or battery electric vehicles (of which it has become one of the largest producers in the world). Thanks to the strong growth in its sales, BYD has become the eighth largest carmaker in the world in 2024, behind Nissan and Ford, but ahead of Honda and Suzuki.
- BYD was one of the first Chinese carmakers to want to establish itself on the European market. Last year, it announced that it would build an assembly plant in Hungary. BYD already has an electric bus assembly plant in Hungary, in Komárom, in the north of the country, which was inaugurated in 2017 and which has an annual production capacity of 400 battery electric buses exported throughout Europe.
- The new assembly plant under construction is located in Szeged, in the south of the country. It will start production of passenger cars at the end of 2025, according to the carmaker. The models produced in this factory will first be the Dolphin sedan (battery electric C-segment sedan) launched in China in 2021 and the Atto3 SUV (battery electric C-segment SUV) launched in China in 2022, but two other models (B-segment) will follow in 2026 and 2027 (Atto2 and Seagull) in order to saturate the capacities of the Szeged factory, set at 150,000 vehicles per year in 2025, which could be doubled to 300,000 per year in 2030. Thanks to this production carried out in Europe, BYD could escape the possible additional taxes decided by the European Commission on Chinese electric cars imported from China.
2025 will be a crucial year for the Stellantis group
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2025 will be a crucial year for the Stellantis group
- Formed from the merger of the PSA group (Peugeot-Citroën) and the FCA group (Fiat-Chrysler), the Stellantis group, created in 2021, just after the Covid crisis, has never been able to reach the cumulative sales and production levels of the years 2010-2019 when the PSA and FCA groups were independent. While the PSA+FCA group had reached all together 8 million vehicles per year in 2018 and 2019, the volumes reached after these two years fell to 6 million vehicles on average (6.15 million in 2020, 6.38 million in 2021, 5.70 million in 2022 and 5.97 million in 2023). The results for 2024 are not yet known, but it is likely to being even lower.
- When we compare Stellantis' volumes to those of the world's top three carmakers (Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai-Kia), we see that Toyota has largely exceeded its pre-Covid levels and that Volkswagen and Hyundai-Kia have lost less volume than Stellantis. Stellantis has just done better than GM, which collapsed, going from 10 million vehicles produced and sold in 2016 to 6 million in 2023, with the sale of Opel/Vauxhall to PSA in 2017 only partly explaining this collapse.
- The decline in Stellantis' volume is the consequence of the strategic choice to prioritize the search for high margins to the detriment of volumes, coupled with a policy of standardizing platforms and engines within the entire Stellantis range. It has generated significant overcapacity in Stellantis factories, especially since the carmaker's management had refused to close any factories.
- The year 2025 will be crucial. A strong recovery is indeed unlikely. Choices will have to be made, particularly regarding the closure of factory(ies).
The level of the European market since 2020 confirms the need to close factories
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The level of the European market since 2020 confirms the need to close factories
- With a European light vehicle market (PC+LUV) that has gone from an average level of 18 million units per year (volume reached in 2017, 2018, 2019) to an average level of 13 to 15 million units per year (volume reached in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024), it is clear that the European automotive industry is increasingly suffering from overcapacity. Even though several major European factories have closed over the past ten years, such as the Opel plant in Bochum and the Ford plant in Genk in 2014, then the Honda plant in Swindon and Nissan plant in Barcelona in 2021, the Renault plant in Flins and the Nedcar plant in Born in 2024, production overcapacity remains significant in Europe.
- They reached 33% in 2023, compared to 39% in 2021 and 2022, but 18% in 2019, 16% in 2018 and even 15% in 2016 and 2017. In 2024, they could be at the same level as in 2023.
- New factory closures are confirmed for 2025:
§ The Audi plant in Brussels will close in February 2025 and the Ford plant in Saarlouis in November 2025.
§ Stellantis has announced that it could close its Luton plant as early as next year.
§ Jaguar has not produced cars at its Castle Bromwich site since June 2024, but the plant is being reconfigured to produce the brand's new electric models that will be launched from 2025.
- Finally, remains the status of Volkswagen for which at least three plants are in overcapacities : Dresden, Osnabrück and Emden. But so far, nothing has been confirmed.
Tesla declines in its three major global markets over 9 months 2024
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Tesla declines in its three major global markets over 9 months 2024
- The Californian carmaker of battery electric vehicles Tesla is in decline in 2024 in its three major global markets: China, the United States and Europe, at least over the first 9 months.
- Official results provided by local statistics agencies show a 3.3% drop in Tesla sales in China (675,758 sales in the first 9 months of 2024 compared to 699,056 in the first 9 months of 2023), a 13.1% drop in the United States (446,200 sales in the first 9 months of 2024 compared to 513,369 in the first 9 months of 2023) and a 8.6% drop in Europe 30 countries –EU + United Kingdom + Switzerland + Norway–(249,337 sales in the first 9 months of 2024 compared to 272,788 in the first 9 months of 2023).
- Combining these three major markets, there were 1,371,295 sales in the first 9 months of 2024 compared to 1,485,213 in the first 9 months of 2023, which represents a decrease of 7.7% in percentage and 113,918 units in volume.
- On the other hand, Tesla's direct competitor, BYD, increased its sales by 32.0% in the first 9 months of 2024, but it was mainly its plug-in hybrid vehicles that saw their sales increase (1,436,811 PHEVs sold out of 2,732,901 BYDs sold over the period).
- Over the first 9 months of 2024, Tesla therefore remains the world's leading carmaker of battery electric vehicles, with 1,469,383 BEVs produced,ahead of BYD, which did not exceed 1,296,090 BEVs produced over the period. But it is true that the gap is narrowing between the two BEV makers.