The difficulties of Mercedes plan for electric mobility
- 詳細
- The Mercedes Group has sold 99,301 electric vehicles (BEVs) and 175,522 plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) through 2021, representing 11% of its global sales (4% BEVs and 7% PHEVs). Broken down by model, 29,875 EQAs, 17,950 EQCs, 8,869 EQSs, 3,407 EQVs and 312 EQEs were produced in Europe, plus 26,715 Smart EQ Fortwos, 8,957 Smart EQ Forfours, with the remainder (3,216 units) split between e-Vito and e-Sprinter.
- If a sales target of 100% electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles is set for 2035, as desired by the European Parliament, the Mercedes Group would have to succeed in selling 17.5% BEV+PHEV in 2022, 24% in 2023, 30.5% in 2024, 37.0% in 2025, 43.5% in 2026, 50.0% in 2027, etc., until 100% is reached in 2035, assuming linear growth. Based on the results of the first nine months of 2022, Mercedes Group will not reach the 300,000 BEV+PHEV sales in 2022 (200,000 sales in nine months), which would represent between 12% and 14% of the carmaker's global sales, far from the required 17.5%.
- Excluding the Chinese-made Smart 01, Mercedes only offers expensive luxury vehicles, which will not make its task of selling 100% electric vehicles by 2035 any easier, i.e., between 2 million and 2.5 million vehicles, depending on the size of the European market at that time. There is no way the EQA, EQB, EQC, EQE, EQS, and EQV can achieve big sales numbers. That's Mercedes' whole problem. In 2022, the Mercedes Group will occupy only 2% of the global BEV market (BMW and Stellantis are both at 3%).
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Japanese models in the NAFTA zone 2022-2026
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- Toyota, the largest Japanese automaker, launched the Crown sedan and the somewhat sportier GR Corolla on the North American market in 2022. In 2023, the Grand Highlander SUV is to be launched. In 2024, an all-electric (BEV) crossover, the name of which has not yet been announced, is to be launched, and in 2025, a sedan that is also all-electric.
- Lexus, Toyota's premium brand, aims to launch the RZ electric SUV in North America in 2023. The electric TX crossover is scheduled to appear there the following year. In addition, two unspecified BEVs have been announced for 2025 and 2026. Nissan introduced the Ariya electric SUV to the North American market in 2022. Otherwise, a yet-unknown BEV crossover and another BEV sedan were announced for 2025, the latter also still unknown.
- Nissan's premium Infiniti brand has announced two yet-unknown BEV models for the North American market in 2025, a sedan and a crossover. Two unknown crossover models have also been announced for 2026, one with an internal combustion engine and one with an all-electric drive.
- Honda wants to offer a hybrid version of the Civic in North America in 2023. In 2024, the carmaker wants to launch an electric SUV there, the Prologue, and in 2025, an SUV with an internal combustion engine and hybrid drive is to be available there, the Pilot XL.
- Acura, Honda's premium brand, will introduce the Integra Type S with an internal combustion engine and hybrid drive to the North American market in 2022. A crossover with an internal combustion engine, the name of which has not yet been announced, has been announced for 2024, and the BEV version of the NSX sports car is to be launched in 2026.
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VW's acceleration towards electrification
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- According to Inovev's forecast, the Volkswagen Group will sell around 257,000 electric cars (BEVs) in Europe by the end of 2022, which is around 21,000 BEVs less than in 2021. While Audi can be satisfied with its BEV sales, Skoda is stable and the Cupra Born has made a good start, it is the VW brand itself that will probably not be able to exceed the BEV sales of the previous year. The brand itself is now adjusting its strategy for electric vehicles.
- The head of the VW brand announced at the end of October that it will only produce BEVs in Europe from 2033, instead of making this move between 2033 and 2035 as previously announced. However, VW cars with internal combustion engines will continue to be produced in the U.S. and China for a little longer. In addition, the product range will be simplified and more cross-brand platforms will be used.
- With this goal in mind, the VW brand plans to launch ten new BEV models by 2026 and be able to cover every segment in the future. With the ID7, whose study is still called ID Aero, there will be a counterpart to the Passat in 2023. A BEV with a price tag of under €25,000 is also planned. This could be the ID Life study, which could be marketed under the names ID1 and ID2. The ID6 SUV is only available in China so far, but could replace the Tiguan in Europe if it is successful there.
- Volkswagen as a group, but more importantly as a brand, needs to increase sales of electric cars if it wants to retain its position as world market leader. While Tesla currently dominates the BEV market in the premium segment, the market for entry-level models could soon be taken over by Chinese competitors. Hyundai also has plans for a BEV model for the entry-level segment, which should cost no more than €20,000.
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Sports and luxury models in the NAFTA zone 2022-2026
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- In 2024, Aston Martin will launch the Valhalla, a very sporty PHEV, on the North American market. An as yet unnamed BEV has been announced for 2025.
- Bentley will offer the Bentayga Long Wheelbase from 2024. An electric SUV has been announced for 2025 and an electric sedan for 2026. Neither has yet been specified in more detail.
- Ferrari will introduce the Purosangue, an internal combustion engine crossover, to the North American market in 2023. Otherwise, two vehicles with V12 engines will be introduced to the North American market in 2024 and 2025, and a BEV in 2026. They have not yet been named.
- Lamborghini plans to offer an all-electric GT sedan in North America starting in 2026.Maserati will sell the Grecale SUV in North America starting in 2022. Its BEV version is to be launched there in 2023 together with the Gran Tourismo (BEV) and MC20 Cielo (with combustion engine) sports cars. The BEV version of the E-MC20 is to be launched on the North American market in 2025 and that of the Levante SUV in 2026.
- American luxury BEV carmaker Lucid will introduce its Air Touring and Air Pure sedans to its home market in 2022. An even more luxurious sedan, the Sapphire, will be launched in 2023 and an SUV, the Gravity, in 2024. McLaren has been selling the Artura sports car in North America since 2022. In 2023, the PHEV, the Artura Spider, should appear there. From 2024, the BEV P1 sports car should be offered in limited editions.
- Porsche offered the 911 Sport Classic in a limited edition in North America in 2022. The 911 Safari was to be launched there in 2023. In 2025, a hybrid version of the 911 and the BEV version of the Macan were to be launched there. In 2025, BEV versions of the Cayenne and Boxster/Cayman should be launched. A BEV crossover has been announced for 2026.
- Rolls- Royce will launch the Spectre BEV in 2023 and an as yet unnamed crossover in 2025 on the North American market.
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The electric Mini will be produced in China in the future
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- Since 2000, the Mini has been manufactured at a single location: Oxford (United Kingdom). BMW will launch the new generation of the Mini in 2023. A very important change compared to the current generation is that the 100% electric version will be relocated from the UK (Oxford) to China (Zhangjiagang), mimicking Mercedes' strategy for the electric Smart, which is being relocated from France and Slovenia to China. These relocations were likely decided due to lower labor costs in China and the much larger market for 100% electric cars (BEVs) in China than in Europe. For example, the Chinese electric car market will be 4.5 million units in 2022, compared to only 1.3 million units in Europe, three times less. And the gap between the two markets will continue to widen due to the strong growth of BEV sales in China. So there is the possibility of selling three out of every four electric cars produced in China, which is an argument that should not be underestimated.
- The electric Mini, to be launched in 2023, will be produced by a JV linking BMW with China's Great Wall Motors, which has not yet had the opportunity to work with a foreign carmaker, as SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng, BAIC, Chery or GAC have long done.
- This JV's plant in Zhangjiagang, near Shanghai, is designed to produce 160,000 electric Mini per year, while the UK plant in Oxford currently produces 40,000 Mini per year, representing 20% of Mini sales. By contrast, the next-generation electric Countryman, scheduled for 2023, will be made at the German plant in Leipzig. Today, this version is not yet available, as the Countryman is only available with an internal combustion engine and as a plug-in hybrid.
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