The French automotive industry has set a target of 900,000 BEV sold in 2027
- The Strategic Automotive Industry Contract (CSF in French) for 2024-2027 was signed on May 6, 2024, in particular by the government and the PFA (organization representing carmakers and their supply chain). This contract sets a sales target of 900,000 battery electric light vehicles in 2027: 800,000 passenger cars (PC) and 100,000 light utility vehicles (LUV). See axis 4 (page 20) of the strategic contract for the automotive sector signed on May 6, 2024, downloadable at the address below (in French only): https://www.conseil-national-industrie.gouv.fr/files_cni /files/csf/Automobile/1835-strategic-contract-of-the-automobile-sector-light-vehicles-and-heavy-vehicles-2024-2027.pdf
- This sales objective is very ambitious. In 2023, 298,127 battery electric passenger cars were sold in France (16.8% of the French PC market at a level of 1,774,772 PCs) and 25,315 battery electric light utility vehicles (5.6% of the French market at a level of 378,040 LUVs). Inovev's forecasts for the French market for 2027 are 2,244,000 PC+LUV. Taking this market level into account, the government's objectives of BEVs for 2027 result in a market share of 40% of the PC+LUV market. Battery electric passenger cars sales would be multiplied by 2.7 in 4 years (annual growth rate: 30%) and battery electric light utility vehicles sales multiplied by 4 in 4 years (annual growth rate of 40%).
- The signed strategic contract does not indicate how to achieve this objective. But we can assume that the arrival on the market of battery electric models at moderate prices is one of the factors which could accelerate the growth of BEV sales, these future launches being made by European carmakers, but also Japanese, Korean and especially Chinese, the latter being renowned for offering electric models at low prices. This objective will be all the more achievable if subsidies for BEVs continue at least until 2027, because we have seen the impact of stopping subsidies in Germany.
- Note that the Inovev reference scenario shows a level of 900,000 sales only in 2030, and not in 2027 (see curve below)