Did Japanese sedans benefit in the USA from the discontinuation of American sedans?
- We recently brought to the front that the two major American carmakers, GM and Ford, had decided to remove sedans from their American ranges, judging that this sedan market was in constant decline (although it had been extremely important and even vital in the 50s and 60s, until the mid-70s) and less and less profitable, facing the constant growth of more profitable SUVs. While station wagons had been gradually replaced by minivans (MPVs), sedans were gradually replaced by SUVs (with SUVs even eventually replacing minivans).
- Japanese carmakers, which occupy 37% of the US market in 2024, are the most direct competitors of the GM and Ford groups. It is therefore relevant to know whether the discontinuation of American sedans has benefited Japanese sedans. When we observe the sales curves of American and Japanese sedans, we see that the decline of this type of car has been general. The number of Japanese sedans on the US market fell from 3 million units per year in 2013-2014-2015-2016 to 1.5 million per year in 2020-2021-2022, due to the increasingly strong competition from SUVs. However, unlike American sedans, Japanese sedans sales reversed the trend in 2023, increasing by 350,000 units, which may be explained by a transfer of part of the customer base from American sedans to Japanese sedans. Competition from European sedans is not affected because these are premium sedans that don't really face any competition from GM and Ford, aside from a few Cadillac and Lincoln models that sell very little. And the competition from Korean sedans is too weak.