The Chinese passenger car market shrunk by 24.3% in the first half of 2026
- While Chinese automobile exports increased by 72% in the first half of 2026 compared to the first half of 2025, reaching 4,432,377 units from 2,577,054 units, the Chinese passenger car market is still experiencing a significant decline, according to this year's forecasts (-24.3% in the first half of 2025). A further decline of 26.4% was recorded in June 2026, the steepest drop since the beginning of the year. The Chinese economy is heavily impacted by the Iran-Iraq War and market saturation in the automotive sector.
- Exports do not need to be fully compensated for in the Chinese market, and the sum of domestic market and exports was reduced to 6% in the first half of 2026, as was the report for the first half of 2025.
- The other brands (excluding Tesla) are experiencing even greater losses in the Chinese market. Their market share (including Tesla) is projected to fall to 27.5% in the first half of 2026, down from 37.5% in 2025. For example, we are seeing declines of 19% for BMW, 21% for Nissan, 31% for the Volkswagen Group, 33% for Mercedes, and 45% for Honda.
- According to the report, the Volkswagen Group achieved sales of 383,000 units in the past six months. BYD, with 336,000 units sold to date, remains in third place within the Volkswagen Group and is the market leader in China. Other brands include BYD, Geely, Chery, and SAIC.
- The Chinese government's target is expected to be -11%, which remains difficult to achieve.