European market forecast 2021-2025

说明
European market forecast 2021-2025
- At the onset of the coronavirus crisis in Europe, Inovev had its forecast for the European market for 2020 and 2021 to adjust to new market circumstances. Thus, three scenarios had been constructed. The first (optimistic) reported a 25% decline in the European market over the year as a whole, the second (conservative) reported a 32% decline, the third (pessimistic) a 38% decline.

- Taking into account the 26.1% drop in the European passenger car market observed over the cumulative first 11 months of 2020 and the 19.3% drop in the European light commercial vehicle market over the same period, the decrease concerning light vehicles (PC + LCV) is 25.3% over the first eleven 11 months.

- We can therefore expect a fall in the European market close to 25% over the cumulative 12 months of 2020, therefore close to Inovev forecasts of the optimistic scenario. However, this result will be significantly worse than the result of the world market (-15%) as a whole. The volume of European registrations will therefore represent around 13.8 million units in 2020, compared to 18.4 million units in 2019 and 18.3 million in 2018.

- From 2021, Inovev forecasts a slow and gradual restart of the European market, which should grow by around 9% in 2021 to 15.1 million vehicles, from 3% in 2022 to 15.5 million units, from 2, 7% in 2023 to 15.9 million units, from 2.2% in 2024 to 16.3 million units and from 1.4% in 2025 to 16.5 million units. According to Inovev, we will not return to 2019 levels before 2030 in Europe. Globally, we will return to 2019 levels as early as 2024.



    
 

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Inovev plans 40,000 units per year of the new Mercedes T Class

说明
Inovev plans 40,000 units per year of the new Mercedes T Class
- Mercedes had reached an agreement ten years ago with the Renault-Nissan group to market a light commercial vehicle derived from the Renault Kangoo and positioned in the Mercedes range under the Vito (segment N1-2) and Sprinter (segment N1- 3). This utility vehicle called Citan (segment N1-1) which succeeded the Vaneo was launched in 2012 and its production was carried out at the Maubeuge site (France) alongside the Renault Kangoo. The sales of the Mercedes Citan have never been very high as its production stabilized around 25,000 units per year before collapsing in 2020 due to falling markets.

- Due to this low sales level (Kangoo sales are about 150,000 units per year), the collaboration between Mercedes and Renault-Nissan on this type of vehicle could have been stopped, but the German manufacturer did not want to invest in the replacement. of the Citan and asked Renault-Nissan to continue its collaboration on this type of vehicle.

- The Mercedes Citan will therefore be replaced in 2021 by a rebadged version of the all-new Renault Kangoo which has just been presented. Its new name is T Class, a name which fits better into the Mercedes lineup. It will be a rival to the new Volkswagen Caddy and will take over the CMF-C / D platform from the Renault Kangoo and Mégane. Its engines will be the 1.3 liter petrol and 1.5 diesel Renault origin already known and fitted to the Renault Kangoo. But, unlike the old Citan, the new T Class will also be offered in a 100% electric version called EQT. This engine will be shared with the Renault Kangoo Z.E. The Mercedes T Class will be manufactured at the Maubeuge site, at a rate of 40,000 units per year in the long term according to Inovev.



    
 

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Toyota to launch all-electric SUV in 2021

说明
Toyota to launch all-electric SUV in 2021
- The manufacturer Toyota was the pioneer of the hybrid vehicle (gasoline-electricity), since in 1997 the Japanese started production of the first generation Prius, with a success that has grown over the years to represent a million and a half of hybrid car sales per year, under the Toyota and Lexus brands. The Prius plug-in hybrid is more recent.

- As for the 100% electric vehicle, Toyota has never really taken an interest in it until recently, as the demand for this type of vehicle has grown to be significant, mainly in Europe and China. In 2019, the Toyota Group launched for the first time a 100% electric vehicle in-series (if we put aside the few fuel cell cars running on hydrogen), it is the C-segment CHR EV SUV. But this model was restricted to the Chinese market. Lexus, the Toyota's luxury branch, has extrapolated the UX 300e SUV that is available on the European market, in addition to the Chinese market.

- Toyota is therefore continuing on this path by announcing the launch in 2021 of a brand new 100% electric SUV for global sales, based on the new e-TNGA platform. This vehicle is the first to be based on this platform. It will be produced at Toyota's ZEV plant in Japan. It will take place between the CHR and the RAV4, so it will be a competitor to the recently presented Nissan Ariya. The Nissan Ariya is, let's remember, Nissan's first 100% electric SUV.

- Note that Subaru, Daihatsu and Suzuki are partners of Toyota's ZEV plant. There will therefore soon be new 100% electric cars based on the e-TNGA platform marketed under these different brands.



    
 

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German premium manufacturers limit their Chinese production to their most accessible models

说明
German premium manufacturers limit their Chinese production to their most accessible models
- The production of German manufacturers in China remains high, accounting for a quarter of the country's production in 2020, in the passenger car category, mainly with the Volkswagen, Audi, BMW and Mercedes brands.

- However, German premium manufacturers have been careful to produce their most affordable models locally, as the more expensive models are always imported from Europe and the United States.

- For example, at BMW, only the 1 Series, 3 Series, 5 Series and X1, X2, X3 (including the electric iX3) are made in China. The 7 Series, 8 Series, X4, X5, X6 and X7 are imported.

- At Mercedes, Class A, Class C, Class E, Class V, GLA, GLB, GLC, EQC are made in China. S-Class, GLE, GLS, SL and AMG GT are imported.

- At Audi, the A3, A4, A6, Q2, Q3, Q5 are made in China while the A7, A8, E-Tron, Q7 and Q8 are imported.

- It does not appear that these manufacturers plan to manufacture their most expensive models in China any time soon. The total imports of these vehicles represent nearly 400,000 units each year (395,000 in 2018, 370,000 in 2019), i.e. a volume equivalent to one-fifth of what they produce locally.

- The case of Volkswagen is more complicated because the range of this manufacturer in China is very different (and larger) than that offered in Europe. However, Volkswagen imports nearly 40,000 vehicles into China each year.



    
 

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Tesla begins exporting its Model 3s from China to Europe

说明
Tesla begins exporting its Model 3s from China to Europe

- Tesla begins exporting its 100% electric Model 3 sedans to Europe. Until recently, these models came from the US factory in Fremont (California) and in the future, they might be manufactured in the plant in Berlin (Germany) under construction. For a while, the Model 3s sold in Europe will therefore come from the Chinese plant in Shanghai, perhaps to avoid sporadic deliveries. Tesla is not the first (nor the last) to export electric cars to Europe from China. MG has already been doing this for three years (its sales will exceed 25,000 units in Europe in 2020). Polestar has been doing this since last year. BMW has been doing it since this year (iX3). In 2021, Renault will export the Dacia Spring to Europe and new players have indicated that they will do the same, not to mention Smart, which will export its future Fortwos from China in 2022. MG stated that it will market four new electrified models in Europe as early as 2021. Dongfeng has announced its arrival in Europe with two electric SUVs (Seres 3 and Seres 5) and a van (EC35). Lynk & Co has announced its arrival in Europe with the SUV 01 with a plug-in hybrid engine.


- Is this the start of the dreaded invasion of Chinese brands in Europe? In any case, this is a return of Chinese brands in Europe, after a first failure observed in the early 2000s. This coming back will be achieved through  electricity and also Western brands producing in China (Tesla, BMW, Renault). But the announced tsunami will not materialize during the 2020s, because the traditional brands already present in Europe still have many strengths.




    
 

Contact us: info@inovev.com 

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