BREXIT 2/4: The different outcomes possible
- In a scenario of BREXIT, three hypotheses are possible:
1. The assumption of the status quo pending negotiations of free trade agreements or establishments of customs barriers.
2. The assumption, most likely, of a free trade agreement (FTA) or preferential treatment on the basis of existing ones with the EFTA countries, Switzerland, Turkey, Morocco and South Korea for example.
3. The hypothesis, the most extreme hypothesis and least likely one, of setting up trade barriers to EU entry but also to Great Britain entry, in case no agreement was found .
- In all three scenarios, Britain would lose its influence in Europe (including over standards) and would benefit a lot less of the free circulation of European human resources. However, these assumptions can be distinguished by the impact they could have on the levels of future production of the country.
- The status quo or the free trade agreement (assumptions No. 1 and No. 2) would change very little to the production level of the UK. Hypothesis No. 3, admittedly more extreme, however, is more interesting to study, for the establishment of customs barriers could both impact British production and also European production.
Contact us: info@inovev.com