- Global auto sales (VP + LCV) in 2020 fell to the same level as a decade earlier, when taking into account sales made in the first quarter. The Covid-19 erased the growth achieved between the lowest point of the decade in 2009 and 2018, the year which represented the highest point of sales volume, since the year 2019 had already recorded a decline in around 5%. The year 2020 should show a much more significant drop, of the order of 25%, and perhaps more if the demand is not there in the second half of this year, because the second quarter is and already lost, since we could observe a decrease of around 30%.
- To achieve a decrease of 25% over the whole year, we would have to count on a decrease of 20% in the third quarter and a decrease of 20% in the fourth quarter, which is not impracticable, because the manufacturers will sell off their cars put in stock since the beginning of containment and it is to be expected that the anxiety of traveling by public transport can bring new customers, even if many will prefer the bicycle or the electric scooter, even the car second hand.
- Auto production follows the same trend as sales, with a small difference in the first quarter (-27% for production, -25% for sales) as production stopped in mid-March while sales continued until 'at the end of March.
- Even though automakers will have to restock after deconfinement, provided they have sold their old stocks, global auto production could fall 25% over the year, returning to 2006 levels.
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