Why the Tesla Model 3 was the best-selling model in Europe in September 2021?
- The Tesla Model 3 was the best-selling model in Europe in September 2021 (22,246 sales), well ahead of the Renault Clio (17,034 units), Dacia Sandero (16,641 units) and Volkswagen Golf (16,610 units). But this information is irrelevant if we only look at Model 3 sales in September. Why? The explanation is simple: Tesla's sales in Europe show an atypical evolution similar to a sinusoidal movement, that is to say with a strong diffusion which takes place every three months followed by a very weak diffusion every two months.
- This cyclical sales phenomenon is explained by Tesla's own production policy at its American factory in Fremont, which consists of first producing vehicles intended for export in the first half of each quarter and then vehicles intended for the American market. This strategy named "Wave" aims to limit the stocks of vehicles on the US production plant. Taking into account the logistical time required to transport vehicles to destination markets, we therefore find this cyclical phenomenon in registrations. The Chinese market is little affected by this cycle, because Tesla has been producing the Model 3 there since April 2020.
- This strategy will probably continue in Europe until 2022, when the future German Tesla plant is supposed to be opened, and where the Model 3 and Model Y will be produced. Cyclical sales should therefore continue for a few more months, while the German production is ramping up. So it will not be a surprise to see strong sales declines in October and November, and after that again a strong increase in December 2021.
- Anyway, the increase in sales of Model 3 in Europe is significant because the volume of deliveries is in strong evolution compared to 2020 and 2019. While in 2019, these deliveries had reached 80,000 units and 75,000 in 2020 (volume in slight decrease due to the Covid-19 crisis), they could reach between 130,000 and 135,000 units in 2021, which would represent an increase of 80% compared to 2020 and of 70% compared to 2019.
- This volume of 130,000 to 135,000 Model 3 sold in Europe in 2021 will represent 25% of the global production of this model, estimated at 520,000 units, its two other major markets being the United States and China.
- It is interesting to note that Model 3 sales continue to increase (in Europe and elsewhere) as the Tesla Model Y started to be marketed several months ago. In Europe, the Tesla Model Y is already 14th in September 2021 (11,176 sales) with a volume representing half of the Model 3 sales.
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