Production forecast Germany 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest production forecasts for passenger cars (PC)+ light utility vehicules (LUV) in Germany are rather pessimistic, as Germany will never again reach the level of 2010-2017, i.e. a volume of 6 million vehicles per year, but only 4 million vehicles per year.
- These forecasts take into account a catch-up from 2023 onwards, after a very poor performance in 2020, 2021 and 2022 due to the Corona crisis (in 2020), the semiconductor crisis (in 2021) and then the consequences of the war in Ukraine (in 2022). German automotive production (PC+LUV) thus fell from 5 million units in 2019 to less than 3.5 million units in 2021 and 2022.
- Other factors worked against German production, such as relocations (which occurred later than in France), the reduction of exports to China (in favor of local production), the difficulty of manufacturers to switch from fossil combustion engines to electric cars and probably to produce fewer but more expensive vehicles. This factor has probably contributed to a decrease in production volume at Volkswagen, Audi, BMW and Mercedes. In addition, there is the collapse of the American brands based in Germany (Opel and Ford). Ford, for example, has planned to close its Saarlouis plant in the near future. Symbolizing the end of German supremacy, the Volkswagen Golf has not been the best-selling model in Europe since 2022, and the ID3 is not the most popular electric car in Europe as announced.
- Inovev expects 4 million vehicles to be produced annually in Germany between 2024 and 2030.
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