Production forecast United Kingdom 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest forecast for passenger cars (PC) + light utility vehicules (LUV) production in the UK (currently England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) shows a modest catch-up from 2023, with a peak of one million vehicles per year in 2026 and 2027. This figure is still a far cry from the peak in 2016 and 2017, which was over 1.75 million units per year.
- Since those years, U.K. automotive production has suffered several shocks: first, Brexit (the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union) has led to an increase in U.K. costs, which in turn has led to the departure of Honda (Swindon) and capacity reductions at Vauxhall (Ellesmere Port), as well as Nissan (Sunderland) and Toyota (Burnaston). Production at Jaguar (Castle Bromwich) and Land Rover (Solihull) was also severely affected. Incidentally, the Castle Bromwich plant will close in 2024. The production volume of passenger cars+LUV in the UK thus dropped from 1.75 million units in 2017 to 1.35 million units in 2019.
- Then came the Corona crisis (2020), the semiconductor crisis (2021) and the consequences of the war in Ukraine (2022). Production volumes continued to fall: 975,000 in 2020, 935,000 in 2021, and 725,000 in 2022. In the UK, the number hasn't been this low since 1952! The next few years don't really get any better: Inovev forecasts one million units in 2026 and 2027, but 900,000 in 2028 and 2029 and 825,000 in 2030. The fact that the UK is not part of the European Union will remain a constant problem unless the country decides to become a manufacturing base for chinese brands.
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