The future of the Russian market as seen by Russian statistical organizations
- Russian statistical organizations have examined the future of the automotive industry in Russia. In 2023, they forecast a Russian car market of between 500,000 and 700,000 vehicles (cars and light trucks), compared with 615,000 in 2022 and 1,667,000 in 2021. According to these sources, this weakness of the Russian market can be explained by the negative dynamics of the GDP, by the decrease in imports, by the inactivity of some local factories previously assigned to the assembly of foreign vehicles and by the decrease in the population's income. The automotive market will have to adapt to these new conditions, in addition to targeted Western economic sanctions. These sources indicate that if the war with Ukraine were to escalate, the Russian car market could fall to less than 500,000 vehicles by 2023.
- AvtoVAZ is expected to increase its sales to 350,000 units next year (2021 level). The other two local manufacturers UAZ and GAZ will also remain at the 2021 level, at 30,000 and 50,000 units respectively. Chinese brands are expected to sell 170,000 cars in 2023 (up from 85,000 units in 2022 and 115,000 in 2021). This total includes sales through the launch of new brands, such as Moskvitch. It will be twice as high as in 2022, following the departure of European brands.
- Chinese manufacturers had seen their sales fall in 2022 due to a collapse of the Russian market (-63%) but their market share had increased in a market reduced by two thirds (7% of PDM in 2021 and 14% in 2022).
- Inovev insists that the Russian market is now divided between the Russian and Chinese automotive industries.