Will European carmakers still be in China in 2030?
- Given that the market share of foreign carmakers is decreasing from year to year in China (45% in 2023 compared to 49% in 2022, 55% in 2021, 60% in 2020, 61% in 2019), we can wonder about the future of European carmakers in China by 2030.
- First, we must identify the share of European carmakers among foreign carmakers. It is 40% in 2023, which represents 19% of the entire Chinese market compared to 25% in 2019. This is the largest share among foreign carmakers as Japanese carmakers are at 15% of the Chinese market in 2023 (compared to 22% in 2019), Americans at 9% (compared to 9% in 2019 – stable thanks to the progress of Tesla) and Koreans at 2% (compared to 5% in 2019).
- European carmakers are therefore still the most represented among foreign carmakers in China. And among the European carmakers present in China, almost all are German, which benefit from a Premium brand image in this market.
- According to Inovev, non-German European carmakers and Korean carmakers are the most exposed, as their very small market share continues to shrink. At the same time, German and Japanese carmakers, as well as Americans other than Tesla, will continue to decline. But it is likely that there will still be foreign carmakers in China in 2030, particularly German ones. However, European carmakers who only represent 8% of BEV sales in 2023 (compared to 17% for Tesla) must make a big effort to increase this market share, because the evolution of the Chinese market will necessarily involve a increasingly proportion of BEVs (23% in 2023 and soon 30% then 40%).
- For comparison, on the European market, non-European carmakers represents 33% of the sales when by opposition non-American carmakers have 67% of the US market. China could therefore get closer to the European scenario before 2030.