In Germany, after a 1% drop in the market and a 1.7% drop in production, there is a high level of uncertainty for 2025
- German market:
• According to official 12-month figures, 2,817,331 passenger cars (PC) were registered in 2024 compared to 2,844,609 in 2023, a decrease of 1%.
• The Volkswagen group remains largely in the lead (40% market share) and even consolidates its lead compared to the previous year, over Stellantis (12% of the market), Mercedes (10% of the market) and BMW (9% of the market).
• BEV sales fell by 27.4% in 2024 compared to 2023 (380,609 sales compared to 524,219 in 2023), due in particular to the end of subsidies. The share of BEVs in Germany thus fell to 13.5% in 2024 compared to 18.5% in 2023.
• Forecast for 2025: at the time of writing this analysis, there is great uncertainty due to the elections at the end of February (21/2). A debate will take place on whether or not to return subsidies (perhaps via the European Union). In the event of a non-resumption of subsidies, Inovev predicts a 1% drop in the entire market.
- Production:
• In 2024, Germany's production volume reached 4,109,100 passenger cars (official 12-month figures), compared to 4,178,113 in 2023, which represents a drop of 1.7%. The transfer of the VW Passat to Slovakia and the discontinuation of the Ford Fiesta had an impact on production in Germany.
• The decline of the German BEV market has also had a direct impact on the production volume of these cars in Germany. Indeed, the majority of electric cars sold in Germany are produced locally (Volkswagen, Mercedes, BMW). According to the Inovev estimates, around 1 million BEVs were produced in 2024.
• The volume of cars produced and sold in Germany fell by 6% overall to 935,600 units. On the other hand, the volume of German car exports continued to increase in 2024, by around 2% to 3,173,500 units.
• Forecast for 2025: The situation should be stable compared to 2024. In the event of no resumption of subsidies, production for the German market should be almost identical to 2024. For exports, there is also a great uncertainty, particularly related to the US policy towards imported vehicles.