French Market and Production Forecast 2022-2030
- In Inovev's reference scenario (automotive market = sales at 14.5 million units in 2030 and production volume at 15.4 million units), each country will be impacted according to local economic conditions, aid provided by the State to buyers of electric cars, the interest aroused by the supply of electric cars and plug-in hybrids, and even the confidence of households in the future.
- Registrations in France should experience a small recovery in 2022, of the order of 5% to 10% depending on the level of supply of semiconductors, which in terms of volumes should represent at least 2.20 million PV+ VUL and 2.30 million at most, compared to 2.09 million in 2021, 2.05 million in 2020 and 2.69 million in 2019.
- The year 2022 should not see the appearance of large-volume novelties and at the same time it will have to continue the path of the electrification of automotive purchases, which should have an impact on the average price of cars and the relative caution in l acquisition of a new car for some of the customers.
- In terms of production, the volume in France should increase from 1.31 million units in 2021 to 1.53 million in 2022, 1.61 million in 2023 and 1.76 million in 2024 then should increase more modestly until 2030, reaching 1.98 million units by that date. From 2024, in fact, the scissor effect between the purchase of thermal cars and the purchase of electric cars will begin to be a factor directly impacting the automotive market and automotive production. The goal of producing 2 million electrified vehicles (BEV+PHEV+HEV) in 2030 seems out of reach. Inovev is counting on 1 million instead.
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