Should we recreate a new A/A+ segment with thermal engines and maintain it beyond 2035 in Europe?
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Should we recreate a new A/A+ segment with thermal engines and maintain it beyond 2035 in Europe?
- At the current rate of BEV sales development in Europe (13% of sales in Germany over the first 9 months of 2024, 17% in France, 18% in Great Britain, 5% in Spain, 4% in Italy and less than 4% on average in Eastern Europe), the target, set by European regulation 2023/851 of 19/4/2023, of reducing CO2 emissions from new cars by 100% from 2035 compared to their 2021 level (and therefore of registering practically 100% of BEVs) seems very difficult to achieve.
- Should we then be realistic and recreate a thermal A/A+ segment which will be authorised beyond 2035 (A+ = lower part of segment B)? European carmakers have abandoned the unprofitable A-segment (it went from 10% of the market to 5% in a few years). In the B-segment, carmakers are developing new electric vehicles. But these are much more expensive than thermal vehicles. There is therefore a risk, with forced electrification, of seeing a demand for affordable A/B vehicles not satisfied. This new A/A+ segment could be like the Japanese Kei Cars which currently represent a third of the Japanese car market.
- In 2024, for new cars with thermal engines (petrol or diesel), the B-segment is the most popular in Europe and is even increasing its influence with 49% of the market compared to 47% last year. C-segment represents 35% of the market compared to 36% in 2023. These two market segments therefore represent 84% of the European market in 2024 compared to 83% in 2023. D-A-E and F segments represent only 16% of the European market in 2024 compared to 17% in 2023.
- As for new cars with fully electric engines, the distribution by segment is completely different, as C and D segments dominate this market, with 70% of sales (including 37% for C-segment and 33% for D-segment). B-Segment is poorly represented but is progressing (17% in 2024 compared to 14% in 2023). A-Segment is practically on the verge of extinction (4% in 2024 compared to 9% in 2023).
- See also the following analysis: Should BEV quotas be created by country or by segment for 2035 in Europe?
Which carmakers are making progress in the USA over 9 months 2024?
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Which carmakers are making progress in the USA over 9 months 2024?
- While the US passenger car market (including pickups) increased by 0.4% in the first 9 months of 2024, which carmakers saw their sales increase sharply and which ones saw their sales decline sharply?
- Already in terms of volumes, the GM group remains the leader of the US market in 2024, with a 16.5% market share in the first 9 months of 2024, ahead of the Toyota group (Toyota, Lexus) which represents a 14.7% market share.
- The Ford group maintains its third place with a market share of 12.9%, despite the end of its sedans. It is followed by the Hyundai-Kia group (10.6% market share) which benefited from the abandonment of sedans by the Big Three (GM, Ford, Chrysler). Honda (9.0% market share) moves from sixth to fifth place in the US market, taking advantage of the difficulties of Stellantis (8.4% market share), which stopped production of its sedans last December and suffered from the end of life of its Ram pickup. Next come Nissan (6.6% market share), then Subaru, Volkswagen and Tesla (around 4% market share).
- The carmakers that are making the most progress in 2024 are Fisker, Ineos, Vinfast and Rivian, but with very modest volumes. Fisker took advantage of its bankruptcy filing to sell off its unsold cars at half price... Among the major carmakers, Honda is doing best with a 9.0% increase in its sales.
- The carmakers that are falling the most in 2024 are Stellantis (-17.0%) and Tesla (-13.1%). Regarding Tesla, the evolution of sales is uncertain with the election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States. Indeed, Donald Trump denigrated electric vehicles in his election campaign. But because of his proximity to Elon Musk, he seems to have changed his point of view. "I am for electric vehicles, I must be since Elon Musk strongly supported me" he declared at his speech in Atlanta.
Tesla alone represents nearly half of the US BEV market
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Tesla alone represents nearly half of the US BEV market
- In a BEV market that represent 7.9% of the US passenger car and pickup market (i.e. 909,526 BEVs) over the first nine months of 2024, Tesla alone represents nearly half (49%), or 446,200 BEVs, and thus asserts itself as the undisputed leader of electric vehicle carmakers on the American market.
- Behind, very detached, the Hyundai-Kia group (90,244 units) supplants the two national carmakers, the GM group (70,468 units) and the Ford group (67,702 units). Followed by the small carmaker Rivian (40,965 units), the Volkswagen group (38,965 units) and the two German Premium carmakers BMW (36,216 units) and Mercedes (23,545 units). Japanese carmakers (Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Subaru) are largely left behind due to their lack of interest in this type of engine. Stellantis, which has not yet started selling BEVs in the United States, is logically at the back of the pack.
- What is the share of electrification (BEV) in each of the major automotive groups in 2024 in the USA? Tesla is the carmaker that records the largest share of BEVs in its sales with 100%, like Rivian, Fisker, Lucid, Vinfast and Karma, which however represent much more modest sales volumes. All other carmakers BEVs represent less than 15% of their total sales, BMW being the best placed, with a share of 13%. Geely, thanks to its Volvo and Polestar brands, holds a 10% share of BEVs in its sales. The other carmakers are at less than 10% of BEV in their sales, with very low figures for Japanese carmakers (from 1% to 3%) and even null for Stellantis (0%).
US passenger car and pick-up market is stable over 9 months 2024
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US passenger car and pick-up market is stable over 9 months 2024
- The US passenger car market (including pickups) grew by 0.4% in the first 9 months of 2024, reflecting relative stability. The volume of passenger car (sedans, SUVs, MPVs) and pickup truck registrations in the United States stands at 11,771,403 units over the period, compared to 11,729,097 over the first 9 months of 2023. We can therefore expect a volume of 15.6 million vehicles registered over the whole of 2024, which corresponds more or less to the volume recorded in 2023.
- The new Trump presidency could reverse some of the CO2 targets announced by the Biden administration, but at the same time, it might not erase the sales targets for electric cars in the United States due to Elon Musk's closeness to Donald Trump and his entourage, a closeness that could be considered by some as one of the reasons for Trump's success in the American presidential election.
- The Tesla Model Y and Model 3 are leading the market in terms of registrations of battery electric cars in the US market, with 30,000 and 15,000 units per month respectively, while the Model S and Model X have all but disappeared from the market, with 1,000 units per month for each model. Interestingly, the Cybertruck pickup is now registering 5,000 sales per month, which puts it in third place in the US BEV market behind the Model Y and Model 3, and well ahead of its competitors the Ford F-150 Lightning and Chevrolet Silverado EV.
Which carmakers are making progress in China over 9 months 2024?
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Which carmakers are making progress in China over 9 months 2024?
- While the Chinese passenger car market grew by 3% in the first 9 months of 2024, which carmakers saw their sales increase sharply and which ones saw their sales decline sharply?
- Already in terms of volumes, the BYD group becomes the leader of the Chinese market in 2024, now occupying 14.6% of the market share in 2024 (compared to 11.4% in the first 9 months of 2023) and thus dethroning the Volkswagen group which fell to 10.2% of the market share compared to 11.9% last year, and which is therefore largely distanced this year. Its objective is to return to 15% of the Chinese market in 2030, which is ambitious.
- Behind BYD and Volkswagen, we note the presence of two Chinese carmakers who have made enormous progress compared to previous years. First, the Geely group – with its 11 different brands – closely follows the Volkswagen group, with a market share of 9% compared to 7.2% last year. Next comes the Chery group – with its 6 different brands – which is very close to Geely with 8.9% market share compared to 6.5% last year. Geely and Chery are expected to overtake the Volkswagen group in the coming months.
- The carmakers that are making the most progress in 2024 are BYD (+32.0%), Geely (+30.1%), Chery (+40.6%) but also carmakers with more modest volumes such as Seres (+306%) and Li Auto (+40.0%). We also note the rather unexpected good performance of FAW (Hongqi brand) which is progressing by 23.2% thanks to a "democratization" of its range.
- The carmakers that are expected to decline the most in 2024 are GM (-29.7%), Honda (-27.3%), GAC (-22.1%), SAIC (-22.0%) and Toyota (-18.3%). Japanese carmakers are as affected as European and American carmakers.