The closure of Nissan plant in Barcelona is postponed until December 2021
Scheduled to be permanently closed in December 2020, the Nissan Barcelona plant, which produces Nissan Navara pick-ups and NV200 electrically powered vans, has been granted a one more year activity, its closure having been postponed to December 2021. This rescheduling has nothing to do with the coronavirus crisis, as the official explanation of the carmaker is that it had decided to give more time to the employees and suppliers of the plant to prepare the end of production and to have more time to look for alternative solutions.

In fact, the Nissan Navara and NV200 continue to sell (modestly) in the European market: 6,895 and 7,001 units respectively on the cumulative 9 months 2020, against 13,611 and 12,529 units in 2019 and 16,609 and 14,573 units. in 2018. The Nissan Pulsar disappeared from assembly lines in 2018, while the Mercedes X-Class and Renault Alaskan pick-ups have just been withdrawn from the production program, as demand for these two models was deemed too low.

The production at the Barcelona plant has plunged over the past thirteen years, dropping from 200,000 units in 2007 to 150,000 units in 2015 and then 30,000 units in 2020. It is no longer viable to operate a plant with a capacity of 170,000 vehicles per year with such a low production volume.

The Barcelona plant could have replaced Sunderland (UK) plant, threatened in the event of a no-deal Brexit, but this solution was not chosen by Nissan. Consequently, in this increasingly probable perspective, Nissan has no longer any alternative for producing vehicles in large volumes on the European continent.


    
 

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The Top 20 model sold in Europe (9 months 2020)
In a European passenger car market down 29.5% over the first nine months of 2020 compared to the same period of 2019, the Volkswagen Golf remains the best-selling car (211,844 units), but it dominates its competitors less like in the past, certainly because the Volkswagen Tiguan (5th with 124,586 units) has taken some of its customers. And the Tiguan cuts a good figure as it sits in fifth place behind the Renault Clio (2nd with 168,035 units), the Peugeot 208 (3rd with 136,004 units) and the Opel Corsa (4th with 135,991 units). Note that the 208 and Corsa which are sharing the same platform and engines sell about as much as each other. Together, they greatly exceed the Volkswagen Golf. Two other B-segment sedans are in the top 10: the Volkswagen Polo (8th with 120,708 units) and Ford Fiesta (9th with 114,375 units). Ford put also the Focus in the top 10 best selling cars (6th with 121,046 units), while the Renault Captur (8th with 118,359 units) and Mercedes Classe A (10th with 110,537 units) enter the Top 10.

The Dacia Sandero takes the 11th rank with 108,273 units, ahead of the Skoda Octavia, Toyota Yaris, Volkswagen T-Roc and Peugeot 2008. The latest Peugeot seems to bite the Peugeot 3008, whose influence has declined. The Nissan Qashqai is also down significantly from last year. His replacement should be presented in late 2020 or early 2021.

The VW group remains the leader in Europe (26% market share), ahead of PSA (15%) and Renault-Nissan (14%). Far behind, the Hyundai-Kia group (7%) is ahead of the BMW (7%), Daimler (6%), Toyota (6%), FCA (6%) and Ford (6%) groups.


    
 

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Daihatsu remains the biggest "kei cars" producer
Subsidiary of the Toyota group, the firm Daihatsu remains to this day the largest producer of "kei cars", a segment of vehicles less than 3.40 m in length and which benefit from tax and advantages in Japan (in particular free parking in large cities ) and which represent a third of the Japanese automotive market. These vehicles can be assimilated to European A-segment cars.

In 2019, the Daihatsu brand sold 837,973 passenger cars worldwide (representing a decrease of 1% compared to 2018), sold mainly in Japan and Indonesia, since the brand has withdrawn from other markets for several years. Japan now accounts for 79% of its global sales and Indonesia 21%. To these sales must be added the 240,341 cars sold in Malaysia under the independent brand Perodua.

Daihatsu still places two or three models in the Japanese Top 10. In 2019, for example, the brand (which at the time occupied 13% of the Japanese market) placed the Tanto in second place (175,292 units), the Move in fifth place (122,835 units) and the Mira in tenth place (94 545 units), these three models alone accounting for nearly half of the brand's sales.

Daihatsu now offers 16 different models on the Japanese market, only two of which are not "kei cars", took in the Toyota range by the way. The first is the Altis, a rebadged and renamed Toyota Camry, and the second, the Mebiusis a rebadged and renamed Prius.
These
two models only experience an extremely small distribution, as Daihatsu's clientele is traditionally focused on "kei cars", such as Suzuki's (696,000 sales in 2019, excluding Maruti in India).


    
 

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Evolution of the European passenger car market by brand from 1995 to 2019
Inovev analysed the sales volume of the main automotive brands in the European market from 1995 to 2019.

What strikes first is the predominance from 2005/2006 of the Volkswagen brand which stands out from all the others, while it was a brand on the same level as others between 1995 and 2005, especially Opel, Ford and Renault.

From 2005/2006, many brands saw their sales volume drop, increasingly standing out from Volkswagen, which was resisting and even progressing. After 2010, these brands (such as Renault, Opel, Ford, Peugeot, Toyota) are at practically the same level (between 800,000 and 1,000,000 units per year), with a gap of around 600,000 units with the leader Volkswagen.

At the same time, Premium brands (Mercedes, BMW and Audi) are at the same level as the five previously mentioned brands, after a good increase in their sales to date.

Finally, new brands have appeared on the European market and have made great progress, such as Skoda, Hyundai, Kia and Dacia, which now achieve scores very close to those of Citroën or Fiat (Skoda has even surpassed these two brands) which have become the weakest of the big traditional brands (meaning present on the European market for a very long time).

In summary, the gap is narrowing between the sales of the big brands (fourteen in total) while at the same time the gap has steadily amplified between Volkswagen and all the other big brands. The carmakers who have lost their influence the most over the past 25 years are Opel, Ford and Fiat.


    
 

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The global automotive market will decline by 15% in 2020
The global automotive market (passenger cars and light utility vehicles) fell by 15.7% over the ten months of 2020, compared to the firs ten months of 2019. This decline is broken down as follows: -18.2% for passenger cars and -9.6% for light utility vehicles.
This
decline in vehicle sales in 2020 is the result of the coronavirus crisis, which affected the whole world but more particularly the populations of Europe and America, those located in Asia having been less affected.

The decline in vehicle sales was especially significant during the 2020 spring, when most of the major countries have established lock down for their populations. Sales, however, continued at an almost normal rhythm in countries where there was no or light lock down. These sales were made on existing stock for markets sourcing their cars from countries where factories has been stopped. This is the reason why stocks usually calibrated for one month of sales have fallen to very low volumes, the lowest in many years.

Since the summer of 2020, global sales have started to rise again and are approaching pre-crisis levels except in Europe, where there is still a drop in sales of around 27% over the ten months in 2020. In Asia, the sales drop did not exceed 13.5% over the same period (a drop twice that of Europe). As for South and North Americas, the sales drop did not exceed 20%, a drop halfway between Europe and Asia.

Based on these elements and a probable improvement in November and December, especially noticeable in Asia, Inovev expects the global automotive market to decline by 15% over the whole of 2020.


    
 

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