- In Auto Analyze 2023-09, we gave an overview of the Vietnamese automobile market from 2010 to 2022. We said that this market was still at a low level (300,000 sales in 2022, for a population of nearly 100 million inhabitants) but constantly growing (50,000 sales in 2012, 200,000 sales in 2016, 250,000 sales in 2019).

- Today, we provide an overview of automotive production in Vietnam. This is progressing at the same rate as the local automobile market. In 2022, the production volume amounts to 350,000 vehicles compared to 307,000 in 2021 and 258,000 in 2020, which is a figure slightly higher than that of the local market, which means that Vietnam exports a few tens of thousands of vehicles in neighbouring countries.

- Japanese brands were the first to establish themselves in the country, followed by Korean brands. American carmakers Ford and GM were also present in Vietnam, but GM, which ceased distribution in 2018, sold its Hanoi factory to the only national carmaker: Vinfast. It was in this factory that the very first Vinfast vehicles were assembled before production was transferred to Haiphong, in a much larger factory. For now, the production of Vinfast is starting.

- It should be noted that the share of auto parts produced in Vietnam represents only 20% of the country's entire automobile production, compared to 80% in Thailand or Indonesia. Most of the parts are imported, resulting to a high cost of production which is impacted on the vehicle price. However, this is not the case for the national carmaker Vinfast.

- The GM group is currently regrouping four brands: Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac and GMC. The Oldsmobile, Pontiac, Saab and Saturn brands were ended in the 2000s, while the European brands Opel and Vauxhall were sold in 2017 the French group PSA (Stellantis today). The Chevrolet brand represents the entry level of the GM group.

- Chevrolet, the entry level brand of GM, has always been the leading brand of the group. Each year, it ranks among the top brands sold in the United States, in competition with Ford and Toyota. But its sales have steadily declined in volume since 2014.

- Outside the United States, Chevrolet has lost much of its shine, even if the development of its production in China for a time screened the gravity of its situation internationally. In recent years, Chevrolet has ceased production of vehicles in South Africa, Australia, India, Russia and Thailand. Its production in South Korea has fallen by 60% since 2005, and even in North America and South America, its production has fallen by 40% since 2005. In total, Chevrolet's global production has fallen from 4.5 million vehicles in 2005 to 2.7 million in 2022, which represents a drop of 40%.

- Chevrolet's strategy for the past five years has been to drop sedans from its U.S. line-up (while returning the Malibu to production in 2021) and try to establish itself in the all-electric car market. This attempt (still in progress) is not really successful given the positioning of the entry-level brand of the GM group and the reluctance of American customers to purchase this type of vehicle.

- Global light vehicle production (passenger cars + light utility vehicles) posted strong growth in the first four months of 2023: +9.9% compared to the same period of 2022. This significant growth rate is comparable to that of the global automotive market over the same period (+9.8%) which means that the restocking period is over since we produce as many vehicles as we have sold for four months.

- Depending on growth in the global automotive market estimated at nearly 10% for the whole of 2023 and depending on the high level of production between June and December 2022 followed by a stabilization of the production in April 2023 compared to April 2022, it is reasonable to expect that global automotive production growth could slow down and become very weak between June 2023 and December 2023. 

- Inovev estimates global automotive production growth at 2.5% for the whole of 2023. 

- This distortion between the level of sales and production will therefore result in a new destocking of vehicles because the level of sales will be higher than the level of production. The year 2024 is therefore forecasted according to Inovev to undoubtedly carry out a significant restocking, as in 2022. Finally, it should be noted that production growth will be greater in 2023 in China and India than in the United States or Europe, which will further increase China's share in the global automotive production, which was 28% in 2019 and 32% in 2022.

- The GM group is currently regrouping four brands: Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac and GMC. Buick represents the group's mid-range brand. It is the only mid-range brand of the GM group to have survived after the end of the brands Oldsmobile in 2004 and Pontiac in 2010.

- On the decline, Buick also almost disappeared, but the establishment and development of its production in China made it possible to find real prosperity against all odds for several years, between 2008 and 2016, its production volume going from 440,000 to 1,415,000 vehicles during this period. Between 2008 and 2016, China's share of Buick production increased from 62% to 87%. And it has continued to progress since, reaching 94% in 2022.

- The problem is that Buick's production volume has been steadily declining since 2016 in both China and North America. It thus decreased globally from 1,415,000 units in 2016 to 1,318,000 in 2017, 1,138,000 in 2018, 915,000 in 2019, 861,000 in 2021 and 718,000 in 2022. Buick's production volume has thus halved between 2016 and 2022.

- The threat of a disappearance therefore resurfaces because nothing has so far made it possible to stop this fall. In addition, production in North America has become truly confidential. Chevrolet's strategy has been copied to Buick in North America by eliminating its sedans in North America and entering the battery electric vehicle market and a range of products made up exclusively of SUV in North America, with the same failure for the moment.