- European car production (VP + LCV) fell 36.2% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of 2019, with a volume of 4.58 million units (compared to 7.19 million the previous year) . The fall has been amplified since March 2020, the date of the start of the containment of the population and the closure of most factories and car dealerships, since it had reached -3% in February, -49% in March and -78 % in April.

- In May, many factories started to restart, but not at their usual pace and rather around the middle of the month. We can therefore count on a drop of almost 50% in May (the same level as in March) and June should start to see a recovery in European production, if demand is still present. It should be present because European governments will do their utmost to revive the activity of the sector, and manufacturers on their side will encourage consumption, thanks in particular to price cuts (to sell stocks), free credits and payment deferrals to 2021 (this has already been happening since the end of May for most manufacturers).

- The objective of limiting the drop in European production to 25% for the whole year is therefore not unrealistic, since over the four months among the worst of the year, we are at -36.2 % and we will undoubtedly be at -38% on the cumulative of the first five months (using a scenario at -50% in May). We should finish the first half at -33%. To end the year at -25%, we should therefore expect a decrease of 15% at most in the second half of 2020, if we take into account the volumes recorded in 2019.