The difficulties of the BMW electric plan
- By 2021, the BMW Group has sold 103,855 electric models (BEVs) and 224,461 plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), representing 13% of their global sales (4% BEV and 9% PHEV). Broken down by model, these are 37,939 iX3, 28,216 i3, 34,851 Mini E and 2,849 iX. The product range will be expanded with the launch of the i4 (offshoot of the 4 Series), i7 (offshoot of the 7 Series) and iX1 (offshoot of the X1 SUV) in 2022. In 2023, an electric Mini Countryman and the i5 (offshoot of the 5 series) are scheduled to appear alongside the already familiar Mini E. It is noticeable that, as with Mercedes, the BEV range is based on that of cars with combustion engines.
- If a target of 100% for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales is set for 2035, as desired by the European Parliament, the BMW Group should succeed in selling 17.5% BEV+PHEV in 2022, 24% in 2023, 30.5% in 2024, 37.0% in 2025, 43.5% in 2026, 50.0% in 2027, etc. by 2035 to reach 100%, assuming a linear growth assumption.
- Based on the results of the first nine months of 2022, BMW will not reach the 350,000 BEV + PHEV sales in 2022 (260,000 sales in nine months), which would represent between 13% and 15% of the carmaker's global sales, far from the required 17.5%, although slightly better than Mercedes.
- BMW, like Mercedes, only offer expensive luxury cars, which will not make their task of selling 100% electric vehicles in 2035 any easier, i.e. between 2 million and 2.5 million vehicles, depending on the size of the European market at that time. For example, the carmaker has planned to produce 160,000 Mini E in 2030, which is half of Mini's current sales. In 2022, the BMW Group has only a 3% share of the global BEV market (compared to 2% for Mercedes).
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