Global forecast of internal combustion engines in 2035
Is there a possibility that cars with internal combustion engines will still be sold in large quantities after 2030 or even after 2035?
- It is likely that countries that do not comply with CO2 emission regulations will continue to produce or buy cars with internal combustion engines. For example, the BMW Group announces that half of the cars it will produce in 2030 will have internal combustion engines, which is an interesting indication of its strategy in terms of motorization.
- In which countries will they be marketed? Mainly to countries whose market is not yet mature. In 2021, emerging markets accounted for 25% of global sales, while mature countries (Europe, USA, China, Japan, South Korea) accounted for 75% of global sales, i.e. 3/4 of the 75 million vehicles sold worldwide (cars + trucks).
- Assuming that the global market in 2030 will be roughly the same as in 2021, about 20 million internal combustion vehicles will be sold in 2030 in countries with emerging markets with in addition about 30 million internal combustion vehicles in market mature countries, i.e. about 50 million vehicles.
- In 2035, the volume of internal combustion vehicles is expected to decline by about 20 million vehicles, as a ban on internal combustion engine vehicles will be applied in Europe at that time. If it takes longer than expected for electrification to take hold in mature countries, these volumes will be higher. So it is clear that there is still a future for internal combustion engine vehicles.
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