The Argentine market is down 50.4% in the first half of 2019
Argentina is gradually sinking into a serious and lasting economic crisis, dragging all automotive-related industries into its wake. This crisis is linked to an over-indebtedness of both the State and individual households.

The Argentinean automobile market (PC+LCV) collapsed by 50.4% in the first half of 2019, compared to the first half of 2018, to 235,834 units (compared to 475,884 the previous year). This unfavorable trend in the Argentine market is reminiscent of the crisis of the early 2000s, which was exceptional in its scale. The Argentine market had then gone from 300,000 units per year to 100,000 per year in two years. Gradually, the Argentine market had gradually recovered to reach nearly one million units in 2013, but since then, it has been losing ground. Nonetheless, it was close to 775,000 units in 2018.

Which manufacturers lost the most sales in the first half of 2019?

The most affected are GM (-60.0%), PSA (-58.1%), Ford (-52.7%), Volkswagen (-52.5%) and Renault-Nissan (-47.0%).

However, the Renault-Nissan group remains the leader in Argentina, ahead of Volkswagen, Toyota, Ford, FCA, GM and PSA.

The other OEMS are far behind these seven manufacturers (which account for  93% of registrations). There are  several Chinese manufacturers (Chery, Lifan, Geely, Dongfeng, Great Wall) who are trying to enter this market, but the volume of all Chinese does not exceed 1% of the market. It is also interesting to  note that SUVs have not yet made inroads in Argentina, since their market share does not exceed 19% while pick-ups reach 13%. Sedans are still the majority (61%).


    
 

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The Brazilian market is up 12.1% over the first half of 2019
Unlike Argentina, Brazil continues to grow in the automotive market, which translates into a 12.1% increase in registrations (PC+LCV) over the first half of 2019, to 1.3 million units, whereas this market had already grown by 14.6% in 2018 compared to 2017, and by 9.5% in 2017 compared to 2016.

Brazil is the only major car-producing country to make progress in 2019, as the other major countries registrations are falling. The reason for Brazil's good performance is that it is catching up, after reaching a record 3.8 million sales in 2012, which preceded a drop in sales between 2013 and 2016 ( in which year a volume of 2.5 million sales was recorded).

The question is whether Brazil will continue to catch up and make further progress until the end of the year, or whether it will suffer the negative consequences of weak global economic growth, like the other world markets.

Most automakers sales increased in the first half of 2019. The strongest increases were recorded by the Chinese OEMs  Geely (+41.7%) and Chery (+284.1%) but all the Chinese manufacturers together do not exceed 1% of the Brazilian market. The top four manufacturers are maintaining their position. FCA (+18.7%) still leads over GM (+16.6%), Volkswagen (+14.9%) and Renault-Nissan (+11.6%). These four manufacturers account for 63% of Brazil's registrations.

SUVs make up only 20% of the Brazilian market, while sedans are still at 61%.


    
 

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BMW has already transferred part of the Mini production to the Netherlands
The BMW group has threatened to transfer the entire production of the Mini from the British plant in Cowley (Oxford) to the Dutch plant in Born if negotiations between Europe and Great Britain on Brexit did not result in an agreement.

Inovev observes that the German manufacturer has in fact already transferred part of the Mini from Cowley to Born some time ago. Indeed, as early as 2014, when the third generation of the Mini was launched (the first two generations were from 2001 and 2006), part of its production was transferred to the Born plant: 17.5% of the volume of Mini excluding Mini Countryman. This percentage rose to 29% in 2015, 30% in 2017 and 33% in 2018.

One third of the Mini cars are now manufactured at the Nedcar site in Born, in addition to the Countryman cars that are produced in their entirety. In fact, the Born site produced a volume of 172,307 Mini and Mini Countryman in 2018, while the Cowley site (historic site of the former Morris brand) produced 189,676 units.

If BMW decided to close the Cowley plant following a Brexit without an agreement, it would probably be difficult to transfer nearly 190,000 Mini to Born, as the Dutch plant would then have to produce more than 350,000 cars per year, which is impossible. The most likely scenario therefore remains a transfer to the plant that BMW is building in Debrecen, Hungary.


    
 

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Toyota and BYD join forces in electric vehicles
The Japanese Toyota group and the Chinese BYD group have joined forces to develop 100% electric vehicles (BEV) for the Chinese market. These future models, which will be launched from 2025 onwards, will be sold in China under the Toyota brand.  With this partnership, Toyota aims to develop affordable electric vehicles for the Chinese market, the world's leading market for electric vehicles. Toyota is indeed far behind its competitors in the field of electric cars, since it has focused for the past twenty years on hybrid cars. BYD is the leader in 100% electric cars in China (the world's largest electric vehicle market) and is neck and neck with Tesla worldwide.

The cooperation with BYD is part of Toyota's strategy to achieve half of its global sales with electrified vehicles (electric and hybrid) by 2025, five years earlier than initially planned.

But to cope with this acceleration, Toyota needs more batteries than expected, pushing it to look beyond its supplier Panasonic, to secure its supplies. This is why Toyota has signed an agreement with CATL, which will be its second battery supplier.

These measures are part of a context of strong growth in the market for zero-emission vehicles. Although this market is still only a niche, stricter emission regulations in larger markets should gradually convert drivers of 100% internal combustion engine vehicles in the coming decades. For Toyota, it is also a response to the quotas imposed by the Chinese government.


    
 

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The European LCV market grew by 3.9% in the first six months of 2019
After increasing by 4.0% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018, the European LCV market (29 countries) resumed its growth in the first half of 2019, with an increase of 3.9% and a volume of 1.14 million units.

We could therefore end the year with a volume of slightly more than 2.2 million units, an increase of 3.5% compared to 2018. However, this volume would be lower than in 2007, when it reached an all-time high of 2.3 million units.

It is of note that the growth observed on the European LCV market is disconnected from the trend observed on the European PC market, which fell by 3.1% in the first half of 2019.

The countries that register the most LCVs remain France (thanks to the high proportion of LCVs converted into company cars), ahead of the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain and Italy. These five countries accounted for 69% of LCV sales in Europe as a whole in the first half of 2019, compared with 70% in the first half of 2018.

The countries with the highest growth in LCV sales were Lithuania (+39.5%), Hungary (+21.4%), Slovenia (+16.7%), Latvia (+12.1%) and Germany (+11.7%). In general, growth in Eastern European countries was higher than in Western European countries, with growth in this region reaching 7.2% while that of Western Europe did not exceed 3.6%.


    
 

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