Polish market forecast in 2015 (PC + LUV)
- The Polish automotive market (PC + LUV) should experience an increase of approximately 16% in 2014 compared to 2013 reaching 385 000 units. The growth was particularly strong in the first quarter of 2014, as the first 3 months of the year marked the end of government incentives. These government incentives allowed companies to claim VAT deductions for the purchase of new vehicles. This created anticipated purchases. Another phenomenon to be considered is the re-export of vehicles purchased in Poland to Western Europe, particularly towards Germany. The Polish car market is artificially overestimated due to these re-exports.
- For 2015, Inovev expects (in its most pessimistic scenario) a small increase compared to 2014 (up 3%), the market should reach the 400 000 units. The increase will be smaller in 2014, since the re-exporting market will follow the demand of Western Europe, which itself should only be up slightly. Nevertheless, it would not be surprising if market growth was more important, since the economic projections for 2015 (supplied by the OECD) indicate that domestic demand and exports are expected to maintain the country's current momentum. Of course, the geopolitical situation in Ukraine could also affect the Polish automotive market.
- Poland is one of the European countries that imports the most vehicles: 97% of cars sold in Poland in 2014 were imported from abroad, almost as much as in countries that do not produce any vehicles. Poland only produces 6 models out of the 350 models available on the market.
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