The European passenger and light utility vehicle market could fall by 3 to 4% in 2020
- The European market (European Union + UK, Switzerland and Norway) of passenger cars and light utility vehicles (PC + LUV) experienced relative stability in 2019 compared to 2018 (+ 1.4%) at almost 18 million units. The PC market remained stable (+ 1% / 15.8 million units) while the LUV market experienced a growth (+ 3% / 2.19 million units).
- This stability of the European market in 2019 was not necessarily acquired at the end of the year, as in the first 3 quarters of the year, registrations of PC & LUV were down 2%. It was in fact the 4th quarter with a growth of almost 10%, which helped to contain the market decline. But this growth is just an epiphenomenon. The inclusion of the WLTP cycle in the calculation of the CO2 targets from March 2020 has indeed resulted in significant PC registrations at the end of 2019 (+ 21% in December 2019 compared to December 2018), except for UK, which experienced weak growth in December (+ 3%). Inovev estimates that anticipated PC registrations will be in the order of 500,000 units in 2019.
- It is precisely this anticipated volume that could be lacking in 2020, in an expected context of slowing consumption (source OECD). Added to this, the uncertain effects of UK confirmed departure from the European Union on one hand, and the trade tensions between the European Union and the United States which are expected to dawn on the other.
- For 2020, Inovev therefore forecasts a fall in the PC & LUV market of around 3% in a median scenario and by 4% in a low scenario. The PC market could drop by 5% while the LUV market would continue to grow by 2 to 3%.
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