35% of electric vehicles in Europe in 2030. But 35% of which market?
- In order to forecast the electrification levels of markets in Europe by 2030, Inovev has built a simulation model named "IES model", standing for "Inovev EV Simulation Model". This simulation model allows us to calculate the market shares of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) necessary for carmakers to meet the CO2 objectives set by the European Commission in 2025 and 2030. Objectives currently in renegotiation.
- However, CO2 objectives alone do not make it possible to predict the levels of European markets in 2030. To this must be added the various factors that will have an impact on buyers demand (professionals and privates) but also on society as a whole. These factors are fairly well identified today: purchase price of electric vehicles, availability of recharging infrastructure, creation of low or zero emission zones, the transition of the automotive industry, impact on jobs and the economy in general, etc ...
- It is all of these factors (C02 objectives and market demand) which are integrated into the “IES model” and which allow Inovev to establish scenarios for the future of the electric vehicle market in Europe in 2030. Thus, in the tables attached to this analysis, you will find two scenarios specific to CO2 objectives and two scenarios which take market demand into account.
- In summary, to achieve the current CO2 objectives, carmakers have to sell in Europe, in 2030, at least 40% of BEVs and 10% of PHEVs (or in a second scenario 30% of BEVs and 25% of PHEVs). However, in the Inovev reference scenario, which takes all the factors into account, 35% of the European market may be made up of BEVs and PHEVs (with 25% of BEVs and 10% of PHEVs), which will, by the way, will not allow carmakers to meet the CO2 targets.
- We are therefore talking about a 35% market of BEVs and PHEVs. But 35% of which market? What will the level of the European market be in 2030? Equivalent to 2019 (before the COVID crisis)? to 2020/2021? Or even much lower?
- We talk a lot about the offer of electric vehicles from carmakers, but demand must also be taken into account. On the offer side, the carmakers' policy is always to move towards greater added value: disappearance of small vehicles, push of large vehicles, vehicles with increasingly complex (but really necessary?) functions and equipment. This choice can lead to two types of risk:
1st risk:
üA continuous increase of vehicle prices to reach a level that will no longer be accepted.
üWith the consequence of a sharp drop in the market for new vehicles.
üSome users may turn away from the car, others prefer to keep their vehicle longer.
2nd risk:
üA hole is forming in the range of European carmakers, no one producing small vehicles. This may turn out to be a royal road for the development of non-European carmakers in Europe, in particular Chinese carmakers, who do not necessarily meet the same objectives as European carmakers (search for profitability in particular).
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