EPA engine forecasts for the USA
- The EPA (Environmental Protection Agency), which is the American Environmental Protection Agency, independent of the American government but controlled by the House of Representatives, has delivered its forecasts of the different engines concerning the sales of light vehicles in the United States , a category that includes sedans, SUVs, minivans, vans and pick-ups.
- The EPA's forcasts seem very optimistic regarding electrification, as the Agency predicts that battery electric vehicles (BEV) will go from 7.7% of the US market in 2023 to 26% in 2027, i.e. -say that their market share would have to increase by 4.5% each year for four years. However, this market share only increased by 2% between 2022 and 2023. This would require a strong acceleration in BEV sales between 2023 and 2027. However, in 2024, we are far from achieving such growth. In the first half, we will barely reach 8% of the market...
- For plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV), the EPA forecasts a market share of 6% in 2027 while it has not reached 2% in 2023. For full-hybrid vehicles (FHEV), the EPA forecasts a decline in sales, with a market share of 4% in 2027 compared to 7.6% in 2023. This share should fall to 3% in 2032.
- Finally, the EPA predicts a constant and rapid decline in thermal vehicles, whose market share would drop from 83% in 2023 to 43% in 2030 and 29% in 2032. According to this scenario, there would be no more sales of thermal vehicles in the USA between 2038 and 2040.