Evolution of the passenger car market share in China according to their origin

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Evolution of the passenger car market share in China according to their origin
- The Chinese passenger car market has been mainly made up for the last fifteen years, of Chinese cars (Geely, Great Wall, Chery, Dongfeng, BYD, GAC, SAIC, etc.), German cars (Volkswagen, Audi, BMW , Mercedes, Porsche), Japanese (Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, Mitsubishi), American (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Ford, Lincoln), Korean (Hyundai, Kia) and at lower level French (Renault, Peugeot, Citroën).

- A significant change in the distribution by origin took place between 2017 and 2020 since:

1. Chinese brands that had managed to reach and exceed 40% of the market in 2017 gradually fell to 34.7% in 2020, a loss of more than 6% in four years.
2. German brands, which had fallen to 20.3% of the market in 2017, have made a spectacular comeback, now reaching 26.8% of the market, a gain of more than 6% in four years.
3. Japanese brands achieved a similar performance, going from 18.1% of the market in 2017 to 23.6% in four years, a gain of 5.5%. The other brands have all seen their market share decline.
4. American brands, on the other hand, lost ground, dropping from 11.5% to 9.0% of the market (-2.5% in four years).
5. Korean brands also lost market share, dropping from 5.1% to 4.4% of the market (-0.7% in four years).
6. French brands have almost disappeared, going from 2.1% to 0.3% of the market (-1.8% in four years).


    
 

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The European market could end 2020 at -30%

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The European market could end 2020 at -30%
- In the first half of 2020, the European market (passenger cars and light utility vehicles) fell by 39%. In June 2020, only the French market was positive, thanks to the ecological bonus. The other European markets are in decline as no governmental subsidies supported the demand, apart from a reduction in VAT in Germany.

- For the second half of 2020, various announcements have been made by some countries (Great Britain, Spain) to support market demand, however, so far, nothing concrete has been decided. Are public supports going to be put in place in Europe to support demand in 2020? If so, when will they be implemented? In July, August, no decision will be made due to the holidays. Will European markets benefit from the European recovery plan? If decisions are taken in September, the implementation and the induced effect can only materialize in the last quarter of 2020.

- Since the start of the COVID-19 crisis, Inovev has established three very short-term scenarios (2020), which are updated based on the latest known elements and which may influence demand:

• A “High” scenario: This most optimistic scenario is based mainly on the implementation of measures supporting demand in all European markets and which will take effect in the last quarter of 2020. Result: a 3rd quarter at -17.5 % + a 4th quarter at -2.5%, meaning a 2nd half at -10% and therefore a 2020 year at -25% (taking into account the drop of 39% in the 1st half).

• A "Ref" scenario: This reference scenario for Inovev is based on the partial implementation of support in Europe (in certain countries only) and a less than expected severe effect of the crisis on the economy. Result: a 2nd semester at -25%, and therefore a 2020 year at -30%.

• A "Low" scenario: This most pessimistic scenario arises in the event that no support decision is made in major markets, or in the event of a second wave of COVID-19. The last half of 2020 would be in line with the first half of 2020 (-39%). Result: A 2nd semester at -37%, and therefore a 2020 year at -35%.


    
 

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The European market fell by 39.4% in the first half of 2020

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The European market fell by 39.4% in the first half of 2020
- The European passenger car market (29 countries) fell by 39.4% over the first 6 months of 2020, compared with -42.8% over the first 5 months and -39% over the first 4 months, compared to the same period of 2019. The drop reached -24% in June against -56.9% in May, due to the end of the lock-down in mainly all European countries.

- By carmakers:

• Toyota Group (-27.9%),
• GeelyGroup (-29.4%),
• BMW Group (-33.6%),
• Volkswagen Group (-35.9%),
• Hyundai-Kia Group (-36 , 1%),
• Daimler Group (-39.0%),
• Renault-Nissan Group (-41.7%),
• Tata Group (-44.9%),
• PSA Group (-45.4%),
• FCA Group ( -46.2%),
• Ford Group (-46.7%).


    
 

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Inovev forecasts 50,000 units per year of the new Nissan Ariya

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Inovev forecasts 50,000 units per year of the new Nissan Ariya
- Nissan finally decides to expand its range of electric cars, as demand (still weak) is increasing day by day around the world, and mainly in Europe and China. Since 2010, this type of car was represented at Nissan only by the Leaf, a bit like at Renault, which mainly focused on the Zoe.

- Recently, Nissan and Renault have decided to expand their range of electric cars (especially in the SUV category) based a new common Renault-Nissan platform.

- Nissan has just unveiled its first electric C-segment SUV, the Ariya, which is like a new generation of X-Trail completely redesigned and equipped with a 100% electric motor. Its dimensions are indeed close to the X-Trail: 4.60 m long, 1.85m wide, 1.66m high.

- Renault will unveil three SUVs from different segments, between 2021 and 2023, based on the same platform as the Ariya.
They will all be produced at the Douai (France) site while the Nissan Ariya will be produced in Tochigi (Japan).

- The Ariya's battery is available in two capacities, one allowing a range of 350 km according to the WLTP cycle, the other allowing a range of 450 km. The prices have not been communicated but they will necessarily be much higher than those of the X-Trail (35,000 euros). They should, however, be lower than those of the Audi E-Tron and Mercedes EQC.

- In this context, Inovev forecasts 50,000 units per year of the new Nissan Ariya.


    
 

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The American market shrinks by 22.5% in the first half of 2020

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The American market shrinks by 22.5% in the first half of 2020
- The American car market (USA) for passenger cars and light trucks (considered as passenger cars in Europe and China) fell by 22.5% over the first 6 months of 2020, compared to -21.9% over the first 5 months and -20% over the first 4 months, compared to the same period in 2019. The improvement of the American market is therefore still not foreseeable. 

- Still positive in February 2020 (+ 10.3%), as it was not yet affected by the coronavirus crisis, this market rolled into the red from March 2020 (-36.9%) and this trend was amplified in April (-46.1%) before returning to a smaller drop in May (-28.7%) and in June (-25.3%).

- Who were the carmakers most affected during this Covid-19 crisis in the United States? Tesla sees its sales almost doubling when the declines of GM (-21.6%), Ford (-23.1%) and Chrysler (-25.9%) are almost equal to the decline in the market as a whole. But we also note the relatively “good performance” of the Korean group Hyundai-Kia (-16.2%) which achieves a much better performance than the Japanese, German and British groups.


    
 

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  1. Inovev forecasts 150,000 units per year of the new VW Caddy
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  3. Fiat will rebuild its range with its own platforms
  4. The Japanese market shrinks by 20.1% in the first half of 2020
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