Inovev forecasts 20,000 new Porsche Cayenne coupes per year
The new Porsche Cayenne coupe, presented  at its world premiere at the 2019 Shanghai Motor Show, could have had a different name than Cayenne, just as its competitor the BMW X6 has a different name than the X5 from which it is derived. This is why Inovev treats this new model as a model in its own right, not as a simple version of an existing model.

The Porsche Cayenne Coupe is aimed at large SUV coupé customers, competing with such vehicles as the BMW X6, Mercedes GLE coupé and Audi Q8, or even the Lamborghini Urus or Maserati Levante.

It is based on the MLB platform used by the standard Cayenne, but also by the Volkswagen Touareg and Audi Q8. The Cayenne coupe is equipped with the most powerful engines of the standard Cayenne’s range, namely the 3-litre V6 and 4-litre V8 petrol engines, which develop powers of 434 hp and 550 hp respectively.

The Cayenne coupe will be manufactured at the same German site in Leipzig as the standard Cayenne (which is an E-segment SUV) and the Macan (which is a D-segment SUV).  Inovev predicts 20,000 units per year of the new Porsche Cayenne coupe, compared to 70,000 units per year for the standard Cayenne.

No electric version is currently planned for this model, while the manufacturer has announced that the next generation Macan will be available in a 100% electric version that will be built on  the technical platform of the Taycan sedan presented at the next Frankfurt Motor Show in September 2019.


    
 

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The top 5 electric car manufacturers in the first quarter of 2019
In the first quarter of 2019, sales of electric cars (BEV) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV) totaled  538,774 units (compared to 304,951 units in the first quarter of 2018), an increase of 76.7% compared to the same period last year. China remains by far the leading electric vehicle  market, with 271,673 sales in the first quarter of 2019, ahead of Europe (125,848 units), the United States (88,753 units) and Japan (12,500 units).

During the same period, the top five global manufacturers selling these vehicles are, in order: BYD (71,504 sales, +150%, 13.3% SOM), Tesla (63,000 sales, +105%, 11.7% SOM), Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (60,031 sales, +21%, 11.1% SOM), Geely Group (34,746 sales, +109%, 6.4% SOM) and BMW Group (29,208 sales, +5%, 5.4% SOM).

It should be noted that the Volkswagen group, which wants to become the world's leading manufacturer of electric cars, is still not on the list of the top five global manufacturers in 2019, which currently cover nearly half (48%) of the global electric car market.

It should also be noted that Tesla is losing its first place, which it acquired in 2018 (thanks to the successful launch of its Model 3), to the Chinese BYD. BYD and Geely benefited from the strong growth in sales of electric cars on the Chinese market in 2019, reaching a 121% increase in the first quarter of 2019, while sales growth in Europe did not exceed 44% and sales in the United States and Japan were stable. This is a consequence of the quotas imposed on manufacturers in China.


    
 

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The new Land Rover Defender will be produced at the Slovak site in Nitra

The new generation of the Land Rover Defender will be presented at the next Frankfurt Motor Show in September 2019. The manufacturer has indicated that this new model will not be produced at the Solihull site in the United Kingdom, but at the Slovak site in Nitra, which it opened at the end of last year.


Inovev had already indicated several years ago that the future Defender would be manufactured at the Nitra site and not at the Solihull site, mainly because of lower labour costs in Slovakia than in Great Britain. It is therefore not a consequence of Brexit, since this decision was taken well before the Brexit vote.


The Nitra plant currently manufactures Discovery, whose sales remain well below targets. This is one of the reasons for the current difficulties of the Jaguar Land Rover group, which belongs to the Indian group Tata Motors.


Other reasons for these difficulties are the drop in diesel car sales, the drop in demand in China and the United States, the massive investments made to renew and diversify the range shortly before the downturn in world markets, and the fear of the consequences of Brexit, which was postponed until the end of October 2019.


The Slovak site in Nitra has a production capacity of 150,000 vehicles per year, with the possibility of doubling this volume in the medium term to 300,000 vehicles per year, which could effectively mean the closure of the Solihull or Halewood plants. Already in 2019, the Jaguar Land Rover division will cut 10% of its workforce worldwide.



    
 

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The future Opel Movano will be produced at the PSA site in Gliwice
While the Opel Movano, based on the Renault Master, has just been restyled, mainly on the front part of the vehicle, the PSA group has announced that its replacement, which will be launched in two years' time, in 2021, will be based on the Peugeot Boxer and Citroën Jumper (and therefore on the Fiat Ducato) and that it will be produced not at the Italian Sevelsud site in Val di Sangro (whose capacities are saturated), but at the PSA Polish site in Gliwice.

Today, the Gliwice site manufactures a large part of the Opel Astra for the European market, but it could therefore gradually become a commercial vehicle production site, like the British Luton plant that manufactures the Opel Vivaro. This could explain why the PSA group had announced the transfer of part of the Opel Astra from the Ellesmere Port site in the United Kingdom to the German site in Rüsselsheim and not to the Polish site in Gliwice.

Given that the PSA group announces a production capacity of 100,000 commercial vehicles per year in Gliwice from 2021, and that the Opel Movano has never exceeded 25,000 sales per year during its long career, it is likely that the PSA group intends to produce part of the Citroën Jumper and Peugeot Boxer on this site, and perhaps also a Toyota version of these large SUVs, since the Toyota SUVs already on the European market, the ProAce (segment N1-2) and ProAce City (segment N1-1) are derived from PSA models. If this scenario is verified, the Opel Astra currently manufactured at the Gliwice site would have to be transferred to another site, probably to the German site in Rüsselsheim.


    
 

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Chinese market decline by manufacturer
The Chinese passenger car market fell by 14.7% over the first four months of 2019 ( a loss of 1,180,000 units over this period). This market decline is even more significant than the one recorded in 2018 (-4.1%), which was the first decline in this market in more than twenty years.

When we look at the evolution of manufacturers' sales on the Chinese market during the first four months of 2019, we see that most of them show a decrease in their sales. Notable exceptions are Mercedes, BMW, Toyota, Honda, BYD and Great Wall, whose sales are increasing. When we now look at the evolution of manufacturers' Chinese market shares by nationality, we see that German, Japanese and Korean brands are increasing their market share while Chinese, American and French brands are reducing their market share.

German brands grew by 20.9% of the market to 22.5% in the first four months of 2019 (compared to the first four months of 2018), Japanese brands grew from 16.6% to 20.1%, Korean brands grew from 4.0% to 4.8%.

On the other hand, Chinese brands fell from 45.2% to 41.5%, American brands from 10.8% to 9.4%, French brands from 1.7% to 0.8%. From these observations, it seems that the decline in the Chinese market affects the cheapest models (Chinese brands) more, while the most expensive models (Mercedes, BMW, Audi) are not affected. The Chinese economic situation is therefore unfavourable to people with the lowest incomes.


    
 

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