Iran purchased 1.35 million vehicles in 2022
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Iran purchased 1.35 million vehicles in 2022
- Iranian automobile market (PC+LUV) is evolving in sawtooth wave depending on the pace and intensity of the economic sanctions applied against the Iranian country. In 2022, the Iranian market returned to a normal level, at 1.35 million vehicles sold, up 50% compared to 2021.
- This figure is, however, still far from the sales peak reached in 2011 (1.6 million vehicles sold) but is close to the Iranian government's objectives, i.e. a market of 1.5 million vehicles per year.
- The peak of registrations was reached in 2011 after a slow and steady increase, doubling the score of 2003 (800 000 vehicles sold). The Iranian market then collapsed in 2012-2013, falling back to the 2003 level. From 2014, the Iranian market began new growth which led it to a volume of nearly 1.6 million units in 2017. Again, from 2018, following a strengthening of economic sanctions against Iran, the Iranian market collapsed, falling to 890,000 units in 2019. The market then stabilized at 900,000 units in 2021. The 2022 figure is the fourth best score achieved by the Iranian market since 2010.
- The two national carmakers (Iran Khodro, SAIPA) remain the two major leaders of the Iranian automobile market, representing 82% of the Iranian market with 42% for Iran Khodro and 40% for SAIPA. The best-selling model in 2022 remains the Pars which is a modernized version of the old Peugeot 405, a distant heir to the original Hillman Paykan.
Oman market reached 65,000 vehicles in 2022
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Oman market reached 65,000 vehicles in 2022
- Oman is a country in the Middle East located in the south of the Arabian Peninsula, neighbouring Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Oman is populated by nearly 5 million inhabitants. Oman's economy is dominated, like its neighbours, by its dependence on oil. Like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait, Oman's automobile market depends on the fluctuation of oil prices.
- The Oman automobile market represents on average between 100,000 and 200,000 new vehicles each year. The peak was reached in 2014, with 210,000 sales. Then the market gradually fell to 70,000 units in 2020, three times less than in 2014. Since 2020, the year of the Covid-19 crisis, this market has remained at less than 100,000 units per year: 72,190 in 2021 and 64,760 in 2022. Unlike other countries in the region, the Oman market is down (by 10%) in 2022 compared to 2021.
- The breakdown of the market by brand has remained the same for several years, with a strong presence of Japanese brands, but the Chinese MG belonging to the SAIC group achieves an excellent 3rd place in 2022 as in 2021.
- Toyota remains the leading brand in Oman with record penetration in the region (47% in 2022). The carmaker places its Land Cruiser SUV and Hilux pick-up in the first two places of the best-selling cars in Oman in 2022.
Vehicle exports from Europe could fall by 6% between 2022 and 2024
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Vehicle exports from Europe could fall by 6% between 2022 and 2024
- In 2022, the European automobile industry (EU + UK) exported nearly 4.4 million light vehicles (passenger and utility vehicles) according to ACEA and Eurostat. The ACEA statistics do not specify whether these are only new vehicles but according to the Inovev analysis, the statistics include new and used vehicles. However, the vast majority of vehicles exported from European soil remain new vehicles. We can therefore estimate that in 2022, just under 30% of new vehicles produced in Europe were exported.
- For many years, the USA has been the leading buyer of vehicles produced in Europe (mainly from Germany and the UK) with around 17% of European exports. China has been importing a constant level of vehicles for several years, between 400,000 and 480,000 units each year. Note that Ukraine imported a high volume of vehicles in 2022, but we can reasonably assume that these are mainly used vehicles.
- What are our forecasts for export from Europe in 2023 and 2024? For these forecasts, Inovev systematically establishes 3 scenarios: a low, reference and high scenario. In our reference scenario, we forecast a drop in exports which could reach a volume of 4.2 million light vehicles in 2023 and 4.1 million units in 2024. Exports are therefore expected to fall by 6% between 2022 and 2024.
- This scenario of decreasing exports is explained by an increasingly strong regionalisation of markets (as opposed to globalization) and which is mainly reflected in the desire of major countries purchasing European vehicles to protect their local industries. This is the case of the USA, which has implemented for at least 3 years a policy favouring local production (at least in the NAFTA zone) and increasing barriers to entry into its territory. This is also the case for China, which has not revised its import taxes, but which thanks to the strong growth of battery electric vehicles (BEV), and in particular Chinese brands, is managing to regain hand in its local market. We can consider here that it is rather a technological barrier, since the vehicles currently produced in China by Chinese brands have more attractive products and more affordable prices than the vehicles offered by European brands and that the majority of European products exported to China remain thermal vehicles.
Qatar market reached a volume of 45,000 vehicles in 2022
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Qatar market reached a volume of 45,000 vehicles in 2022
- Qatar is a country located near Saudi Arabia, which has nearly 2.5 million inhabitants. The automobile market represents on average between 40,000 and 100,000 new vehicles each year. In 2022, it reached 45,000 units, compared to 41,823 in 2021 and 37,411 in 2020, a year marked by the Covid-19 crisis. The year 2022 returns to the level of years just before the Covid crisis, such as 2019 (45,344 sales) or 2018 (45,463 sales).
- However, this figure is still less than half of the previous peak of almost 100,000 units reached in 2015. Like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, Qatar's automobile market depends on fluctuating oil prices, since Qatar relies heavily on the production and sale of oil.
- The configuration of the market by brand has remained the same for several years, with a strong presence of Japanese brands, but the Chinese MG belonging to the SAIC group achieves an excellent 8th place in 2022 as in 2021.
- The best-selling model in 2022 was the Toyota Land Cruiser SUV, with 4,676 units (11.2% of the market) ahead of the Toyota Hilux pickup (2,240 units). Toyota places seven models in the Top 15 by model in 2022, which places the carmaker as the big leader of the Qatari market in 2022 (with 30.6% of the market).
Vehicle imports in Europe could increase by 7% between 2022 and 2024
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Vehicle imports in Europe could increase by 7% between 2022 and 2024
- In 2022, Europe (EU + UK + EFTA) imported nearly 3.1 million light vehicles (passenger and utility vehicles) according to ACEA and Eurostat. The ACEA statistics do not specify whether these are only new vehicles but according to the Inovev analysis, they include new and used vehicles. However, the vast majority of vehicles imported in Europe remain new vehicles. We can therefore estimate that in 2022, around 20% of new vehicles sold in Europe were imported.
- Unsurprisingly, and for several years, Turkey has been the leading vehicle supplier country for Europe as it represents around 20% of European imports. Follows China, which went from 10th rank among importers to 2nd in two years (2021 and 2022). With China, South Korea and Japan, Asia remains the leading region supplier of vehicles imported into Europe (44% of imports).
- What are our forecasts for import growth in Europe in 2023 and 2024? For these forecasts, Inovev systematically establishes 3 scenarios: a low, reference and high scenario. In our reference scenario, we forecast constant growth in imports which could reach a volume of 3.2 million light vehicles in 2023 and 3.3 million in 2024. Imports could therefore increase by +7% between 2022 and 2024.
- This growth scenario is mainly explained by the expected increase in imports of vehicles produced in China by Chinese brands, the vast majority of which being battery electric vehicles (BEV). This increase in imports from China is linked to the expected growth of the BEV market in Europe, as according to our scenario, around 40% of new light vehicles sold in Europe will be BEVs in 2030. This scenario also takes into account a policy of attractive price-product mix from Chinese carmakers (offering of affordable vehicles in B or even A segments) and a proposal from European carmakers always seeking added value rather than volume. However, after 2030, we cannot exclude a drop in imports, which will not necessarily be due to a policy of protection of European industry by the EU (which has more difficulty implementing it than in the USA for example), but by the possibility that Chinese carmakers could set up assembly factories (CKD or SKD) in Europe. The case of BYD is an example with the strong possibility of an assembly plant in Hungary.