Europe 2024 production forecasts: Inovev expects lower growth in 2024
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Europe 2024 production forecasts: Inovev expects lower growth in 2024
- The world production volume of light vehicles (PC+LUV) increased by 9% over the 10-months of 2023 and will probably increase by 10% over the 12-month cumulative. For Europe, it increased by 10% over the 11-months 2023 and will probably increase by 10% over the 12-months.
- The PC+LUV production volume in Europe (EU + UK) will reach 14.36 million units in 2023, compared to 13 million in 2022, 13.1 million in 2021 and 13.4 million in 2020. Despite this improvement of production in 2023, due in particular to the delivery of orders not delivered in 2021 and 2022, the European production volume in 2023 remains very much lower than the recent years before Covid-19: 18.4 million units in 2017, 18 million in 2018 or 17.7 million in 2019.
- The production increase in 2023 does not predict an equivalent pace in 2024. Inovev is counting on a lower growth next year, with an order of magnitude between 1% and 5% due to orders completely delivered in 2023, a slow-growing automobile market and a low growth rate in sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) due to the end or decrease of subsidies in some major European markets, high vehicle prices and the lack of affordable products in smallsegments.
- The arrival of Chinese carmakers in Europe – in terms of production – may only take place in 2025 or even 2026, and therefore the year 2024 will not benefit from an additional production contribution. On the contrary, factories will run slow, like the Ford factories in Germany or the Vauxhall factories in England. The success of Chinese cars imported from China may have a negative impact on automobile production in Europe.
Europe PC market forecasts 2024: Inovev expects lower growth in 2024
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Europe PC market forecasts 2024: Inovev expects lower growth in 2024
- The registrations volume in Europe (scope of the left graph below) of passenger cars (PCs) will probably reach 12.9 million units over the whole of 2023, representing an increase of 14% compared to 2022 (11.3 million units).
- This increase reflects a post-covid catch-up. But this catch-up remains very modest: 1.6 million additional vehicles sold in 2023 compared to 2022. However, taking the 2019 market as a reference (16 million vehicles), that is an additional 15 million vehicles should have been sold between 2021 et 2023 and not 1.6 million. The question is: will a higher catch-up take place in 2024 and 2025? The debate is open.
- What is certain is that the catch-up will not be massive. The “Covid” situation, which could have only been cyclical, was the basis of a structural change of fewer vehicle purchases. This trend has been amplified by the significant increase of the vehicles prices, whether thermal or electric. One question is: will the price of vehicles decrease, making it possible to reach a new target of customers currently discouraged by the necessary purchasing budget (and this budget risks further increasing through the reduction in subsidies). This could happen in 2 ways:
§ The launch onto the European market by European carmakers of smaller and more affordable vehicles.
§ The rise of Chinese imports.
- But the effects of such actions will only be weak in 2024, and could increase in the following years. We therefore anticipate growth in 2024 compared to 2023 of 1 to 5%.
The average engine displacement in Europe has lost 230 cm3 since 2005
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The average engine displacement in Europe has lost 230 cm3 since 2005
Inovev has finalised a comprehensive study on the features of vehicles produced and sold in Europe (masses, dimensions and cylinder capacities).
For more information, please click here. Elements of this study are presented here in this Auto Analysis.
- As analysed in the “Masses-Dimensions-CC” study, the average weight of vehicles remained stable from 2011 to 2019, despite a sharp increase in SUVs and the almost systematic increase in the weight of a model during its renewal. This stabilization can be explained by several factors:
§ A change of mix: owners of D segment sedan renewing their vehicles certainly with SUVs, but from a lower segment, the C segment.
§ But also the significant efforts of carmakers to reduce the weight of their vehicles.
- Carmakers have been able to lower the cylinder capacity of vehicles (and therefore their weight) for equivalent power output (“downsizing”). See graph below relating to non-electrified passenger cars (excluding PHEV and FHEV), produced in Europe (EEZ, European Economic Zone including EU + UK + Morocco + Turkey).
- This optimization is not only due to the addition of a turbo on most engines (even the smallest) but also to other factors, notably gasoline direct injection and hybridization (addition of a electric motor).
- When we look at the petrol or diesel displacements, we see that it is the petrol engines which have benefited the most from downsizing, their average displacement which was 1,750 cm3 in 2005 in Europe has fallen to 1,500 cm3 in 2022, while the diesel engines fell from 1,890 cm3 in 2005 to 1,860 cm3 in 2022. If since 2014 the overall average has fallen sharply, it is also because the share of diesel engines in full thermal and hybrid engines has decreased considerably between 2005 and 2022. It decreased from 50% in 2005 to 30% in 2022, while the share of gasoline engines increased from 50% in 2005 to 58% in 2022. As for the share of hybrid engines (FHEV+PHEV), it went from 0% in 2005 to 12% in 2022.
Around thirty new models will be launched in Europe in 2024
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Around thirty new models will be launched in Europe in 2024
- Around thirty new passenger car models should be produced in Europe in 2024. SUVs will continue to capture the largest share of the European market with 20 new models planned for 2024.
- Among these 20 new SUVs:
§ 7 are from the B-segment B, 7 from the C-segment, 5 from the D-segment and 1 from E-segment.
§ 7 will be offered in both a thermal version and a battery electric version (BEV), 4 will be offered only in a BEV and 9 in a thermal version.
§ We note a particular effort from the Stellantis group which should launch 9 models. The Volkswagen group is expected to launch 7 models. The other 4 models will be launched by the Renault, Geely (Volvo) and Tata (Land Rover) groups.
- 9 new sedans produced in Europe will be launched in production in 2024. Among these 9 new sedans:
§ 4 are from the B-segment, 1 from the C-segment, 2 from the D-segment and 2 from the E-segment.
§ 2 will be marketed in both a thermal version and a battery electric version (BEV), 3 will be only in a BEV version and 4 in a thermal version.
§ The Stellantis group is expected to launch 2 new sedans, the Volkswagen group 3 and 4 will be launched by other groups (Renault, Nissan, Hyundai-Kia and Geely).
The average weight of passenger cars in Europe has increased significantly since 2020
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The average weight of passenger cars in Europe has increased significantly since 2020
Inovev has finalised a comprehensive study on the features of vehicles produced and sold in Europe (masses, dimensions and cylinder capacities).
For more information, please click here. Elements of this study are presented here in this Auto Analysis.
The average weight of passenger cars produced in Europe experienced three very distinct periods between 2000 and 2023 (2/2)
- Period 3 (since 2020).
§ The average weight of vehicles produced in Europe increased from 1411 kg in 2020 to 1462 kg in 2022, an increase of more than 50 kg (+3.5%) in just 2 years.
§ However, during the same period, the mass of non-electrified vehicles increased much less. It went from 1380 kg to 1397 kg, an increase of 17 kg (+1.2%). There is therefore indeed an effect due to electrification.
§ But it's not the only one. The volumes of vehicles produced in Europe have fallen drastically. This drop did not occur uniformly across all vehicle mass segments.
• The 800 to 899 kg vehicle segment has disappeared. As the segment of vehicles weighing 700 to 799 kg had already disappeared in previous years, in 2023 there will no longer be an offer of vehicles weighing less than 900 kg. The lightest vehicle produced in Europe is the Renault Twingo.
• Average mass vehicles (from 900kg to 1600kg) have decreased significantly.
• Heavy vehicles produced in Europe of more than 1600 kg to 1900 kg remained more or less stable, although with a drop for the 1800-1899 kg segment, not due to lower demand but due to competition of the import of Tesla 3 models.
• Vehicles weighing more than 1900 kg were produced and sold in greater quantities.