Global automotive production (VP + LCV) fell 4.9% in 2019

詳細
Global automotive production (VP + LCV) fell 4.9% in 2019
- World car production (VP + LCV) decreased by 4.9% in 2019, after a drop of 1.3% in 2018. The volume of production VP + LCV (including heavy goods vehicles) is according to Inovev of 91,870 000 units, against 96,583,000 units in 2018 (a loss of 4,713,000 units) and 97,843,000 units in 2017. These figures are the result of calculations made by Inovev because a number of manufacturers no longer communicate their figures for production for ten years.

- The decline in world production is mainly due to China, which manufactured 25,720,000 vehicles in 2019, compared to 27,809,000 in 2018 (representing a loss of 2,089,000 units) and 29,026,000 in 2017.

- But other countries have also seen their production decrease significantly, such as India (-670,000 units), Iran (-500,000 units), Germany (-480,000 units), the United States (-345,000 units), Great Britain (-222,000 units), Mexico (-185,000 units), Argentina (-156,000 units), Thailand (-150,000 units), Turkey (- 118,000 units) and Canada (-100,000 units). Other countries experienced declines of less than 100,000 units.

- We observe that the drop in automobile production is general in 2019, but we must qualify this poor result by noting that the figures forecast for 2020 will be much worse still, due to the coronavirus crisis which will spread in the whole world. The drop in the volume of automobile production (-25% approximately) will be the most significant since the Second World War, and it will be necessary to wait until 2021 to witness a real rebound.


20-9-10
    
 

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Global automotive production (VP + LCV) by manufacturers (Top 10)

詳細
Global automotive production (VP + LCV) by manufacturers (Top 10)
- The production volume of non-Chinese manufacturers traditionally includes the volumes assembled for them by Chinese manufacturers, which gives the following results: the Volkswagen, Toyota, Renault-Nissan and GM groups remain the world's top four manufacturers. And Chinese manufacturers are far behind, the most important (Geely) being only in thirteenth place.

- When we include the production volumes of non-Chinese manufacturers assembled by Chinese manufacturers, we obtain a completely different classification, since the Toyota group then becomes the world's largest manufacturer (9.3 million vehicles), and outperforms Renault-Nissan groups (8.4 million) and Volkswagen (6.8 million) which have more vehicles manufactured by Chinese manufacturers. This is especially true for Volkswagen. The Hyundai-Kia group (6.3 million) is way ahead of the GM group (4.6 million), which also has more vehicles manufactured by Chinese manufacturers.

- Chinese manufacturer SAIC (which produces for GM and Volkswagen) is in fifth place in the world, with 5.8 million vehicles assembled, which is not as good as in 2018, but SAIC has necessarily suffered from the drop in sales of GM that 'he produces.

- Ford (4.9 million), FCA (4.3 million) and PSA (3.7 million) maintain their position in both rankings because these manufacturers now produce very few vehicles in China. Conversely, Honda (3.5 million) which produces a lot in China, loses three places compared to the Western ranking and finds itself tenth in the Chinese ranking.


20-9-10
    
 

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European manufacturers used 80% of their capacity in 2019

詳細
European manufacturers used 80% of their capacity in 2019
- European manufacturers used 80% of their European capacity in 2019, compared to 81% in 2018, 83% in 2017 and 84% in 2016. The decline in European car production inevitably leads to an increase in overcapacity on this continent, given that no manufacturer has decided to close factories, the last having been carried out date back to 2014, with the closure of Bochum (GM) and Genk (Ford). The Dresden plant has been converted into the assembly of the Volkswagen e-Golf.

- Despite this, this 80% utilization rate remains one of the best in the decade, because even if production fell by 1.4% last year, demand and therefore the market remains at a high level if we observes the results recorded over the past fifteen years.

- This 80% utilization rate is also considered by economists to be a rate allowing real profitability of the site, with a workforce made up of two daily teams. A site operating at 50-80% of its capacity is considered unprofitable, and a site operating at less than 50% of its capacity is unprofitable.

- Among European factories working at more than 90% of their capacity in 2019, we observe the presence of several belonging to the Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW groups, but also belonging to the Renault-Nissan, PSA and FCA groups.

- With the drop in German production in 2019, the gap has narrowed a little between the utilization rate of factories of German manufacturers and that of factories of French and Italian manufacturers. However, the FCA group remains the European manufacturer in 2019 with the most overcapacity.


20-9-10
    
 

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European production fell 1.4% in 2019

詳細
European production fell 1.4% in 2019

- European automobile production (VP + LCV) fell 1.4% in 2019 to 18.25 million units compared to 18.5 million in 2018 and 18.9 million in 2017. This drop in automobile production, which even reached 2.6% for passenger cars alone (15.7 million units compared to 16.1 million in 2018 and 16.5 million in 2017), due to the drop in registrations in many markets, including China.


- Exports to regions outside Europe (29 countries) thus again lost 200,000 units in 2019 compared to 2018, a year which had already recorded a loss of 200,000 units. Fortunately, the good performance of the European market in 2019 (+ 1.2% for passenger cars) helped limit the damage.


- The transfer of part of production from the West to Eastern Europe continued in 2019, as the Western European volume fell by 4.3% (-6.1% for passenger cars ) while the Eastern European volume increased by 8.9% (+ 8.9% for passenger cars). The proportion is now 75-25 in favor of Western Europe. This gap narrows from year to year.


- Germany remains the leading producer in Europe, but its influence is reduced from year to year, in particular due to a drop in exports to the USA and China, and the partial or total transfer of certain models from Germany abroad. Spain remains the second largest producer in Europe, ahead of France and England. It is now closely followed by the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Together, the Czech Republic and Slovakia produce more than France!



20-9-10
    
 

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Which manufacturers have suffered the most from the Covid-19 crisis in China?

詳細
Which manufacturers have suffered the most from the Covid-19 crisis in China?
- We have previously seen that the Chinese automobile market for passenger cars (passenger cars) declined by 20.5% in January 2020 and by 81.7% in February 2020, or by 43.5% in the first two months of the year 2020, due to the coronavirus health crisis.

- Not all manufacturers located in China suffered an identical drop, because on the one hand all the factories in China did not close at the same time, neither were the concessions, certain regions were more affected than others ( Hubei for example) and some factories suffered more than others from a shortage of parts. Finally, we can add that certain brands benefited from stronger demand than their competitors, due to a more attractive offer.

- All these elements taken into account, we observe that the big losers are Renault (-87%), FCA (-83%) and PSA (-77%), which had already acquired a very fragile position on the Chinese market for several years, and one may wonder if their presence on this market is still possible. Also a big loser, the GM group (Wuling -70%, Baojun -68%, Chevrolet -55-%, Buick -52%, Cadillac -48%) which fell overall by 59%. The Hyundai-Kia group is also very affected by the crisis (-51%).

-More surprisingly, the VW group lost 42% (Skoda -74%, Volkswagen -48%, Audi -24%) and would have lost more without the contribution of its new brand Jetta whose sales exceeded that of Ford on the Chinese market . However, Ford is the only group to have seen its sales and production increase in 2020 in China, compared to 2019. Chinese manufacturers and Premium brands have held up better in this global context of collapse.


20-9-10
    
 

Contact us: info@inovev.com 

  1. Auto factories gradually restart in China since March
  2. Europe still far from restarting
  3. North America in turn enters the Covid-19 crisis
  4. Japanese manufacturers decide to reduce production in Japan
 
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