BEVs do not exceed 4% of the European car parc (vehicles in-use) in 2024
Inovev has estimated the share of BEVs in the car parc (vehicles in use) of the eight European countries which buy the most BEVs (in volume), i.e. Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Denmark. These eight countries alone represent 80% of BEV sales in Europe in the first half of 2024.
 
To make these estimates, Inovev calculated, from the sales of the last 15 years, the parc of BEVs and put it in perspective with the parc of cars whatever their motorization. Calculation was made for each of the eight countries here above.
 
The results are surprising:
• While the average BEV sales in Europe have been around 14-16% since 2022 and Norway purchased 54% of BEVs in 2020, 65% in 2021, 79% in 2022, 82% in 2023 and 85% in 2024, the European fleet (30 countries = EU + United Kingdom + Switzerland + Norway) in July 2024 only includes 4% BEVs and 30% in Norway, the country which has the highest proportion of BEVs in circulation.
• Behind Norway, the three countries with the highest proportion of BEVs in their vehicle parc are Sweden (8%), the Netherlands (7%) and Denmark (6%). Germany and France are behind with a proportion of 4% of BEVs in their vehicle fleet (which is the European average), ahead of the United Kingdom (3%) and Belgium (3%). All other European countries have less than 3% BEV in their fleet.
Mercedes will replace its EQC SUV with two different models
At the end of last year, Mercedes stopped manufacturing its 100% electric D-segment SUV, the EQC, which was the first model in the EQ range dedicated to electric vehicles from the Stuttgart manufacturer. The other models equipped with this type of engine continue their commercial career, such as the EQA, EQB, EQE, EQS, EQT and EQV.
 
But the EQC will soon have descendants under two different bodies (like the EQE and EQS) since a new SUV will be launched in 2025 and a sedan in 2026. They will compete with the 100% electric sedans of D segment such as the BMW i4 and future Audi A4 E-Tron, as well as the Tesla Model 3 and BYD Seal.
 
BMW plans to launch a second generation of the i3 in 2026 which will this time be derived from the 3 Series and which will compete – like the BMW i4 – with the future Mercedes EQC sedan. In 2026, Mercedes and BMW will each have a complete and well-developed range of 100% electric vehicles, with BMW offering the i3, i4, i5, i7 sedans and the iX, iX1, iX2, iX3 SUVs.
 
Audi, for its part, only includes a sedan (A6 E-Tron) and three SUVs (Q4 E-Tron, Q6 E-Tron, Q8 E-Tron) in its range, but it plans to develop its range between 2024 and 2030.
 
While the future compact electric Mercedes (CLA, GLA, GLB) will use the MMA platform presented on the “CLA Concept”, the EQC will have a new MB.EA base dedicated to medium and larger BEVs. Modular in propulsion or all-wheel drive, with one electric unit per axle, this engine will allow powers ranging from 250 hp to 500 hp. The EQC will be entitled to the new engine called eATS 2.0 and coupled to a 100 kWh NCM battery.
Toyota Group to remain world's leading carmaker in first half of 2024
In a global market up 6% in the first 6 months of 2024 compared to the first 6 months of 2023, the ranking of the world's top 15 car carmakers has changed little.
 
The Toyota group remains the world's leading car carmaker, with 5,131,198 vehicles produced over the period, but this volume is down 8.8% compared to the previous period, a drop attributable to the interruption of Daihatsu production for several weeks, following a fraud in homologation tests that cost the brand's CEO his job.
 
The Volkswagen group remains the world's second largest carmaker, with 4,318,100 vehicles produced, which represents a decrease of 0.4%. The Hyundai-Kia group, with 3,547,262 vehicles produced, consolidates its third place despite a slight drop in its production volume (-0.6%), more widely ahead of the Stellantis group, which is down significantly (-7%) but which remains the fourth largest carmaker in the world, with 3,205,227 vehicles produced. The GM group (-5.6%) maintains its fifth place, with 2,450,599 vehicles produced, ahead of the Nissan group (2,216,666 vehicles produced; -2.6%), the Ford group (2,048,318 vehicles produced; -0.2%) and the Honda group (1,892,809 vehicles produced; -3.5%).
 
These top eight carmakers are showing more or less significant declines and if the global automobile market is increasing as a whole, it is mainly thanks to the strong increase in the production volume of Chinese carmakers: +30.9% for BYD which is in ninth position (1,626,195 vehicles produced) and this year supplants Suzuki, +24.6% for Geely (1,375,390 units) which this year supplants BMW and Mercedes; +52.6% for Chery (1,031,235 units) which this year supplants Changan and Tesla. This ranking includes the models produced with the JVs in China in the production of non-Chinese carmakers (example: VWs produced with SAIC are counted at VW).
Several Stellantis Group brands could be stopped in the long term
The management of the Stellantis group (the world's fourth largest carmaker), which includes 14 different brands, has suggested that those that are not profitable will eventually be eliminated.
 
The euphoric period that took place following the merger between the PSA group (Peugeot, Citroën, DS, Opel, Vauxhall) and the FCA group (Fiat, Alfa-Roméo, Lancia, Maserati, Abarth, Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram) in 2021 is no longer the same today. While the management of Stellantis stated that none of the brands making up the group would be eliminated and that everything would be done to develop these brands, the position has completely changed in 2024.
 
Since 2021, in fact, the European automobile market has not returned to its pre-Covid levels, with this market representing almost half of the group's sales (44%). On the other hand, Chinese carmakers are making progress in this market and the production of their models in Europe will accelerate the movement.
 
Recent statements on the search for lowering manufacturing cost and the possibility of closing several low-productivity assembly plants had already shown Stellantis' desire for maximum profitability.
 
In this context, the group's brands most threatened would be Maserati (which could be sold), Abarth, DS and Lancia, whose market shares are extremely small. On the American market (26% of the group's sales), the Chrysler and Dodge brands have very low development potential and the resurrection of these brands seems very costly compared to the expected gains. The future of these six brands therefore seems to be in suspense today.
Renault has stopped the production of the Mégane (thermal) in July 2024
As we get closer in Europe to the 2035 deadline for the end of thermal vehicles, masse volume combustion engine models are disappearing one after the other.
 
After the announcement of the end of the Ford Fiesta and the Volkswagen Up in 2023, and more recently of the Volkswagen Polo in July 2024, Renault has announced the termination of the Mégane assembled in Spain. This leaves only the battery electric Mégane (launched in 2022) to represent the carmaker's C-segment sedan in Europe.
 
The sales drop of the Renault Mégane since 2005 has been impressive and inexorable. From over 350,000 units sold in 2005 (excluding Renault Scénic), the sales volume gradually fell to 150,000 units in 2014, then 35,000 in 2023 and only 10,000 in the first half of 2024.
 
The Renault Mégane was an important model for the carmaker, launched in 1995 to succeed the Renault 19 (1988-1995). It was the mid-size C-segment sedan that competed with the VW Golf, Peugeot 306/307/308, Opel Astra and Ford Focus. Today, the VW Golf, Peugeot 308 and Opel Astra still exist, but the Ford Focus will be phased out without descendants in 2025.
 
Luckily for Renault, its C-segment SUVs are numerous (SymbiozArkana, Austral) and the Sedan version with a trunk still exists in Turkey (nearly 50,000 sales per year). As for the Megane BEV, it will probably not be able to reach the sales volume at medium term of the thermal Megane recorded between 2005 and 2019.
 
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