Number of Chinese OEMs should move gradually from 46 to 23
- By 2016, China had 46 domestic manufacturers producing VP, VUL, trucks and buses. According to the president of Changan (the first independent Chinese manufacturer, with 1.38 million vehicles produced in 2016), only half of Chinese manufacturers will survive by 2022, due to increased competition in China and abroad, and to shifting consumer demand (connectivity, electronics, electric power, autonomous driving, etc.).
- These challenges will, according to Changan's president, represent increasing financial and technological difficulties, which many Chinese manufacturers will not be able to overcome, even with the help of the Chinese government, and even with the prospect of a continually growing Chinese market.
- According to him, only 23 Chinese manufacturers will remain in 2022. It is clear that major manufacturers such as Changan, Beijing (BAIC), Dongfeng (DFM), Geely, Great Wall, FAW, Chery, Anhui (JAC) SAIC, GAC, BYD and Brilliance will continue to exist and increase their market share without necessarily merging between themselves (this makes 12 manufacturers). The most threatened will be the smallest manufacturers, and those who already struggle to survive today in a tight competitive environment. Some of them will have to associate or merge, but it seems very unlikely today that any will come under the control of foreign manufacturers, as the Chinese government will not hesitate to block any such agreements.
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