Should we recreate a new A/A+ segment with thermal engines and maintain it beyond 2035 in Europe?
- At the current rate of BEV sales development in Europe (13% of sales in Germany over the first 9 months of 2024, 17% in France, 18% in Great Britain, 5% in Spain, 4% in Italy and less than 4% on average in Eastern Europe), the target, set by European regulation 2023/851 of 19/4/2023, of reducing CO2 emissions from new cars by 100% from 2035 compared to their 2021 level (and therefore of registering practically 100% of BEVs) seems very difficult to achieve.
- Should we then be realistic and recreate a thermal A/A+ segment which will be authorised beyond 2035 (A+ = lower part of segment B)? European carmakers have abandoned the unprofitable A-segment (it went from 10% of the market to 5% in a few years). In the B-segment, carmakers are developing new electric vehicles. But these are much more expensive than thermal vehicles. There is therefore a risk, with forced electrification, of seeing a demand for affordable A/B vehicles not satisfied. This new A/A+ segment could be like the Japanese Kei Cars which currently represent a third of the Japanese car market.
- In 2024, for new cars with thermal engines (petrol or diesel), the B-segment is the most popular in Europe and is even increasing its influence with 49% of the market compared to 47% last year. C-segment represents 35% of the market compared to 36% in 2023. These two market segments therefore represent 84% of the European market in 2024 compared to 83% in 2023. D-A-E and F segments represent only 16% of the European market in 2024 compared to 17% in 2023.
- As for new cars with fully electric engines, the distribution by segment is completely different, as C and D segments dominate this market, with 70% of sales (including 37% for C-segment and 33% for D-segment). B-Segment is poorly represented but is progressing (17% in 2024 compared to 14% in 2023). A-Segment is practically on the verge of extinction (4% in 2024 compared to 9% in 2023).
- See also the following analysis: Should BEV quotas be created by country or by segment for 2035 in Europe?