Global light vehicle production expected to grow very slowly in 2025
- 说明
Global light vehicle production expected to grow very slowly in 2025
- According to the OECD, global GDP growth is expected to be 3.3% in 2025 compared to 3.2% in 2024. In OECD countries, this growth is expected to be more modest, around 1.9% in 2025. In other countries, a slight decline in overall growth is expected, except in emerging Asia (India and Southeast Asian countries). In this context, global automobile production in 2025 is expected to show very low growth, even if it is not solely dependent on GDP growth.
- Global production should be supported by China, which saw its market grow by 5.2% (1.4 million passenger vehicles) and its automobile production by 5.5% (1.5 million passenger vehicles) last year, and which should see its market and production grow by 2.5% to 5% in 2025, (+1 million passenger vehicles in volume), thanks, in addition to its domestic market, to European markets (despite the introduction of additional taxes in the EU) and to ASEAN countries.
- The US market is cyclical and last year's results are close to the highest figures recorded by this market (16 million passenger vehicles + pick-ups). Inovev is therefore counting on a stable or slightly declining US market, even if the production volume should increase slightly. Despite the proactive policy of encouraging production in North America, this should not have massive effects in 2025.
- The European market should be stable compared to 2024. There are no signs of a vigorous recovery of this market, nor of a recovery in its production. The Chinese BYD will start production in Europe in the second half of 2025 and Volkswagen's more affordable small electric models will not arrive before 2026. The ramp-up of small battery electric models in France (R5, R4) will not alone support European production as a whole.
Pickup truck production is steadily increasing in the USA
- 说明
Pickup truck production is steadily increasing in the USA
- The United States remains the leading producer of pickup trucks ahead of Thailand, but unlike Thailand, pickup trucks assembled in the United States are mainly sold in the United States and Canada. In 2024, the two countries assembled 2.67 million pickup trucks compared to 2.45 million in 2023 and 2.56 million in 2022, while Thailand produced only 750,000 in 2024, a sharp drop compared to 2023 and 2022. While pickup production in Thailand has been steadily declining since 2012-2013, it is the opposite in the United States as the production has been steadily increasing since 2009. The production volume there increased from 1.33 million units to 2.67 million in 2024, which represents a doubling of the production volume in fifteen years.
- The United States produces two categories of pickups, the "full size" category, i.e. large ones, which represent 80% of all pickup production since 2019, and the "intermediate" category, i.e. medium-sized ones, also produced in Thailand, which represent 20% of pickup production in the USA since 2019.
- Thus, large pickups represented 2.13 million units produced in 2024, compared to 510,000 for medium-sized pickups. It should be noted that Thailand still produces more medium-sized pickups than the United States today.
- By model, the Ford F-Series largely dominates all its competitors (nearly a million units produced in 2024), in particular its direct competitors Ram Pick-up, Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra. Japanese carmakers remain far behind American carmakers in the pick-up category, with only 12% of total production carried out in the United States, while the opposite is true in Thailand (82%).
The new EU-Mercosur agreement will not have immediate effects for European carmakers
- 说明
The new EU-Mercosur agreement will not have immediate effects for European carmakers
- The current agreement between the Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay) and the European Union was signed in June 2019 and completed in July 2020. In December 2024, Mercosur and the EU reached a political agreement on a modified version of the previous agreement, which must be ratified by EU members.
- This agreement confirms the gradual elimination of customs tariffs on thermal vehicles from Europe over a period of 15 years with a transitional period of 7 years accompanied by a quota of 50,000 vehicles exported per year. The elimination of tariffs on fully electric cars will be gradual over a longer period of 18 years but with an immediate reduction of 10% (from 35% to 25%). For European carmakers, this agreement will therefore not have significant immediate effects but will be done over the long term, as taxes are reduced. This should therefore not disrupt the position of the players currently in place and the market shares of each. Eventually, Chinese carmakers have the capacity to offer disruptive products and to have an aggressive commercial policy, which could take shares from other carmakers. This trend has started to be noticeable since 2023 with an increase in the share of Chinese carmakers to the detriment of European ones.
- The Mercosur vehicle market is around three million units each year: 3 million in 2024, compared to 2.74 million in 2023, 2.53 million in 2022, 2.51 million in 2021, 2.42 million in 2020, 3.25 million in 2019 and 3.39 million in 2018. Of this total, European carmakers accounted for 51% of total sales in Mercosur, compared to 52% in 2023 and 53% in 2022.
- Imports mainly concern premium vehicles that only a minority of Mercosur customers can afford. Indeed, the majority of cars produced in Brazil and Argentina (Uruguay and Paraguay do not produce cars) are more than sufficient to meet the demand of Mercosur customers. Furthermore, the agreement with the EU will not change the situation because the local clientele that can buy luxury cars is not expandable.
Pick-up truck production drops dramatically in Thailand
- 说明
Pick-up truck production drops dramatically in Thailand
- Production of mid-range pickups has been concentrated in Thailand since the 1960s. American and Japanese carmakers gradually established plants there, until they represented a production volume of 600,000 units in 2005, sold in Thailand but mainly exported throughout the world. Production doubled between 2005 and 2012-2013, going from 600,000 to 1,200,000 units, as global markets increasingly demanded this type of vehicle.
- The years 2012 and 2013 actually marked a peak in production of mid-range pickups in Thailand because their production volume began to decline from that point on.
- It is probably the decline in global demand for mid-range pick-ups that has been responsible of Thailand production, in addition to the increasing competition of other countries, such as the USA, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil and South Africa. In 2024, pick-up production in Thailand will only represent 750,000 units compared to 950,000 in 2023 and 1,085,000 in 2022.
- By model, the Toyota Hilux remains the leader in pick-up production in Thailand, with 320,000 units produced in 2024 compared to 372,000 in 2023 and 439,000 in 2022. This model largely supplants the Isuzu D-Max, Ford Ranger and Mitsubishi Triton which also declined in 2024. The Nissan Navara now only represents a tiny share of production. As for the Chevrolet Colorado, Fiat Fullback and Mazda BT-50, they have completely disappeared from the Thai manufacturing program.
The Stellantis group has announced their products planning for Italian plants
- 说明
The Stellantis group has announced their products planning for Italian plants
- The Italian government had issued protests against the Stellantis automobile group last year, because it had observed that the successive launches of the group's European models concerned production sites outside Italy, even when they were models of Italian brands. Thus, the Fiat 600 and the Alfa-Romeo Junior are produced in Poland, the new Lancia Ypsilon is assembled in Spain and the Fiat Grande Panda in Serbia.
- The Stellantis group made new announcements last December, with the future launches of its models that would be assembled on Italian soil between 2025 and 2030.
- Compared to the carmaker's previous announcements, it is confirmed that the Fiat 500 e will have a replacement in 2030 again assembled at Mirafiori, based on the STLA Small platform or on the Smart Car platform used by the Grande Panda. New Alfa-Romeos will be launched in 2025, 2026 and 2026. These will use the STLA Large platform and will be assembled at the Cassino site.
- A new Fiat Panda will be launched in 2030 and assembled in Pomigliano, alongside a future Lancia Delta on the STLA Small platform. Finally, the Ducato light utility vehicles and re-branded versions will be renewed in 2027, with the same platform as today. As for Maserati, it seems that its future lies in a sale to Ferrari.
- The Stellantis group seems to be walk out on the all-electric policy, since all these models will be available on full electric, thermal or MHEV versions.