New Renault 5 E-Tech: 400,000 vehicles/year or 100,000 vehicles/year in Europe?
- 说明
New Renault 5 E-Tech: 400,000 vehicles/year or 100,000 vehicles/year in Europe?
- Renault presented the new R5 E-Tech (BEV sedan of the B segment) at the 2024 Geneva Motor Show. The essential question that arises is:
§ Will this new R5 be able to position itself as a mass vehicle, as the old R5s were: rates of 400,000 units per year reached for the R5 (1972-1984), then the Super 5 (1984-1996), and the Clio (rate of 400,000 units per year during its best years)?
§ Or will its volumes be around 100,000 vehicles per year, like those planned for the Zoé when it was launched (in fact this model sold 40,000 units per year on average)?
- At first glance, due to its engine and its price, the new R5 E-Tech does not directly replace the Renault Clio, a B segment sedan with a thermal or full-hybrid engine (HEV). Rather, it replaces the Renault Zoé, a BEV sedan from the B-segment with production stopping at the end of March 2024, but with greater ambitions thanks to a design inspired by the old Renault 5 launched in 1972. In fact, the replacement of the Renault Clio will be launched in 2026. It will receive thermal and full-hybrid (HEV) engines like today.
- Given that the Renault 5 E-Tech will be significantly more expensive than the Clio, it doesn’t target the same market. Inovev is therefore forecasting 100,000 sales in 2030 of this new model BEV, which marks a clear progress compared to the Zoé. It could reach 200,000 sales per year between 2030 and 2035. If it reached 400,000 vehicles per year, the volume recorded by the R5 and Clio during their best years, this should not be before 2035. It should be noted that the Inovev's forecasts for zero-emission vehicles in 2035 do not reach 100% of the market, as required by the EU regulation (Inovev analysis to come).
- Compared to the original Renault 5, the Renault 5 E-Tech is 42 cm longer (3.92 m instead of 3.50 m) and is much heavier (1,350 kg to 1,450 kg depending on the version, compared to 800 kg to 850 kg for the old R5). Based on the AmpR Small platform (ex-CMF-B EV), it will be produced at the Douai plant, alongside the Mégane E-Tech and Scénic E-Tech. Its electric motor delivers 95 hp (70 kW) with a 40 kWh battery, 120 hp (90 kW) with a 40 kWh battery and 150 hp (110 kW) with a 52 kWh battery. The 40 kWh battery allows a range of 300 km and the 52 kWh battery allows a range of 400 km.
Could Kei Cars be sold in Europe?
- 说明
Could Kei Cars be sold in Europe?
- Japanese law designed as early as the early 1950s specific regulations for small cars called "keijidosha" or Kei Cars that allowed local people to abandon their two-wheelers and switch to four-wheeled vehicles and small cars. budget, with the goal of low-cost mass motorization that allowed the start of a large-scale automobile industry. From 1949 to 1955, the maximum size and authorized engine capacity evolved regularly to stabilize at a length not exceeding 3 meters and a width less than 1.30 meters. From 1976 to 1990, the maximum length was increased to 3.20 m then 3.30 m in 1990 and finally 3.40 m since 1998 (over 1.48 m wide). The authorized cylinder capacity has evolved from 150 cm3 in 1949 to 360 cm3 in 1976 then 550 cm3 in 1990 and finally 660 cm3 since 1998. These small-sized vehicles benefit in Japan from a tax of 3% instead of 5% on other cars. They also benefit from other advantages, such as free places in town or cheaper insurance.
- Kei Cars traditionally represent a third of the Japanese market.
- Introducing such regulations in Europe would make it possible to create a new market in place of the A segment, which is shrinking on this continent, to fight CO2 emissions more effectively and to replace heavy and imposing vehicles in town that are not at all adapted to their environment. The question is whether electric motorization should not be added to these cars. However, we should expect an outcry from car manufacturers who are increasingly reluctant to produce low-margin cars, which are Kei Cars.
Contact us: info@inovev.com
Renault's difficulties in the BEV market
- 说明
Renault's difficulties in the BEV market
- After having analyzed in a previous Auto-Analysis the difficulties of the Volkswagen group in the BEV market (771,000 sales or 8.3% of its global sales in 2023 while the objective was much higher), we can observe that other European carmakers are also experiencing the same difficulties.
- Thus, the Renault group only sold 146,500 BEVs worldwide in 2023, or 6.5% of its total sales. The Renault Mégane BEV did not achieve its sales targets (50,000 to 75,000 units per year), with less than 50,000 units sold last year.
- The Premium BMW and Mercedes groups performed much better than Renault or Volkswagen in 2023, with 15% of BEV sales for the first and 10% of BEV sales for the second. The Stellantis group, on the other hand, is experiencing a very low rate of BEV sales in 2023, with only 4.5% of its total sales last year.
- Regarding the Renault group, major BEV launches are planned for 2024-2025, such as the Renault 5 E-Tech, Renault 4 E-Tech, Renault Scénic E-Tech, Renault Trafic E-Tech, Dacia Spring EV facelifted. These future launches could boost the carmaker's BEV sales, when, current models such as the Mégane BEV, Kangoo BEV and Twingo BEV are not reaching the volumes we might expected and the Renault Master BEV sales are confidential. As for the Renault Zoé, it disappears from the catalog this year, its production being stopped at the end of March 2024, leading to the end of vehicle assembly at the Flins site, a factory created in 1952 for the Renault Frégate.
China became the world's leading exporter of vehicles in 2023
- 说明
China became the world's leading exporter of vehicles in 2023
- In 2023, the Chinese automobile industry exported 4.91 million light vehicles (+58% compared to 2022) and thus became for the first time the world's leading exporter ahead of the European Union (4.75 million) and the Japan (4.42 million). This volume represents 16% of all vehicles produced in China last year.
- Chinese carmakers are gaining market shares on all continents, particularly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, South America and the European continent which imported 870,392 vehicles including 353,276 units in Europe 29 countries ( EU + UK + Switzerland + Norway) and 454,786 units in Russia. This continent absorbs nearly 20% of Chinese exports. Russia has become China's largest export market, ahead of Europe (29 countries), Mexico, Australia, Saudi Arabia and Thailand.
- Note that the few factories located in Russia which assemble Chinese automobiles operate according to the CKD (Complete Knock Down) process, which implies that these assemblies are counted by China as exports.
- It is interesting to note that Chinese exports are not only made by Chinese carmakers as non-Chinese cars are also exported from China, notably Tesla but not only.
- Another interesting clarification, one in three vehicles exported from China in 2023 was battery electric (i.e. more than 1.6 million units), which in opposition to Japanese carmakers, who are well behind in electric motorization. However, Japan produces many of its vehicles abroad, which is not the case for China. China could thus be pushed to produce massively in their foreign markets, as Japan did from the 1980s.
The market of BEV did not decline in Europe in January 2024
- 说明
The market of BEV did not decline in Europe in January 2024
- In January 2024, there were no declining sales of battery electric vehicles (BEV) in Europe 29 countries (EU - Malta + UK + Switzerland + Norway), as they reached a volume of 120,926 units compared to 93,551 units in January 2023 (representing an increase of 29.3% in a total market up 11.5%), with a market share of 11.9 % in January 2024 compared to 10.3% in January 2023 and 9.8% in January 2022.
- If there were no sales decline in January 2024, it was the case in December 2023 compared to December 2022: 205,980 units compared to 276,043 units, representing a market share of 19.7% compared to 24.9% in December 2022. However, it is to be noted that this market share was quite high compared to the annual average and that month of December 2022 was quite exceptional due to anticipated sales.
- In December 2023, the decline of BEV sales in Europe was only in Germany (-50,000 sales compared to December 2022) and Norway (-25,000 sales compared to December 2022) due to the end of the ecological bonuses in these two countries. The other European countries continued to see their BEV sales increase.
- January 2024 returned to a normal level as most countries saw their BEV sales increase, including Germany (+23.9%) and Norway (+281.3%). However, we must take into account the end of ecological bonuses in France for professionals which could disrupt the progression of BEV sales in 2024. On the other hand, the product offer announced at less than 30,000 euros is starting to arrive, with the marketing of the Citroën e-C3, restyled Dacia Spring and Renault R5 E-Tech.