China incites its carmakers to curb investments in Europe
- 说明
China incites its carmakers to curb investments in Europe
- The Chinese government seems to be reviewing its strategy on the development in Europe of Chinese carmakers under its control. It is said to have incited the interruption of discussions on new projects and the refusal to sign new agreements. The message was well received by Chinese public carmakers, such as Dongfeng, which has just announced that it was pausing its factory project in Italy. Several parameters have been highlighted by the Chinese government:
1. Chinese electric cars are facing strong opposition from certain European governments.
2. Sales of Chinese cars are not reaching the level hoped for in Europe. Despite their competitive price compared to their similar European competitors and despite their other intrinsic qualities, they are struggling to convince the European customer, their market share (all engine market) not reaching 3% in 2024, marking very little progress compared to 2023. The 10% market share predicted by Inovev in its studies is still a long way off.
- At the same time, a 10% market share of Chinese carmakers in Europe in 2030 would inevitably lead to a drop in sales of 1.5 million cars by traditional European brands (and also Japanese and Korean brands), which would lead to factory closures and brand closures.
- For the Chinese government, the European market remains a complex one, with tastes and needs that vary from one country to another. The Chinese government could therefore favour the development of its carmakers rather outside Europe, such as in Turkey, South America, Australia, South-East Asia and the Middle East, where these carmakers are already enjoying some success.
Will Dongfeng finally open a factory in Italy?
- 说明
Will Dongfeng finally open a factory in Italy?
- Following Italy's vote in favour of an additional tax on battery electric vehicles imported from China, the Chinese carmaker Dongfeng, which had planned to build an assembly plant in Italy to produce its own models, according to an agreement signed in early August 2024 with the Italian government, has just announced that it is reconsidering this project, probably due the slower than expected development of the electric vehicle market in Europe but perhaps also following Italy's vote in favour of the European Union's additional tax system.
- If this project is cancelled, it would be damaging for the Italian automobile industry, which needs to revive production on its soil. Several hundred thousand vehicles could be produced locally, in addition to the 800,000 produced annually today (mainly by Stellantis).
- Given that Chinese vehicles produced in Europe are not subject to the additional taxes, this decision appears to be an additional weight in favour of the Chinese in the balance of negotiations between the European Union and China.
- The possible questioning of this factory could allow Dongfeng to consider another more accommodating European country, such as Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic or Slovakia, these countries having voted against the additional taxes proposed by the European Union. At the same time, Dongfeng's position is part of a context in which the Chinese government has more generally asked to reconsider the positions of Chinese carmaker s and European governments on new projects. It is still unknown whether this directive could affect projects already well advanced such as BYD in Hungary, Chery in Spain or even Leapmotor in Poland.
Audi will stop production in Brussels at the end of February 2025
- 说明
Audi will stop production in Brussels at the end of February 2025
- The Audi assembly plant in Brussels Forest (Belgium), which is a former Volkswagen factory, is one of the only two survivors (along with the Volvo assembly plant in Ghent) of the formerly flourishing Belgian automobile industry. At the end of the 20th century, Belgium had a Ford factory, an Opel factory, a Renault factory, a Volkswagen factory and other small factories. The Volkswagen Brussels Forest factory produced Volkswagen Lupo, Polo and Golf until 2009, then it produced Audi A1 and A3 until 2018, then finally Audi E-Tron from 2019, renamed Q8 E- Tron in 2022.
- These expensive vehicles did not predispose to a high production volume. This is why the production volume of the Brussels Forest factory did not exceed 51,546 units in 2022, compared to 131,226 in 2012 and 204,402 in 2005. The drop in sales of electric vehicles in Germany (-28,6% over the first 9 months of 2024) due to the end of subsidies handicapped the distribution of the Audi Q8 E-Tron whose sales fell by 36.5% in 2024 (Germany being its first market in 2023 and second in 2024, behind the USA).
- What was a possible hypothesis has therefore become a reality. Audi has just confirmed that it will end production of its Q8 E-Tron model at the Brussels Forest site, effective February 28, 2025.
- Production of this vehicle will be transferred to the Mexican plant in San Jose Chiapa where the Audi Q5 is already assembled for the whole world. This decision implies the permanent closure of the Brussels Forest factory, unless another carmaker wishes to set up there or even another company belonging to a completely different sector.
Nissan to cut global production capacity by 20%
- 说明
Nissan to cut global production capacity by 20%
- Japanese carmaker Nissan, which has regained some autonomy since Renault's stake in its capital was reduced, has announced that it will cut 9,000 jobs worldwide, accompanied by a 20% reduction in its production capacity. However, last April, Nissan announced that it wanted to sell 4.5 million vehicles worldwide in the 2026/2027 financial year*, compared to 3.2 million in 2022 and 3.3 million in 2023. The 2023/2024 financial year (Japanese fiscal year = from March year n to March year n+1) was extremely poor, with a 7.8% drop in Nissan's production compared to the previous financial year and the situation is even worse in September 2024, with a 9.8% drop.
- Production in Japan was the most affected, with a 13.4% drop compared to last year (-11.8% in September 2024), compared to a 6.4% drop for factories located abroad (-9.3% in September 2024). The carmaker does not expect any improvement in the short term. As a result, Nissan announced that it would once again reduce its production capacity by 20%, which will go from 5.6 million vehicles per year to 4.5 million (compared to 7 million vehicles in 2017/2018). To stay afloat, Nissan will sell 10% of its shares in Mitsubishi Motors, reducing its stake to 24% compared to 34% previously.
- Nissan's difficulties can be explained in part by the constant lack of success of its models and the serious decline observed in China (-15% of sales over 9 months of 2024). We can also wonder about the fact that Nissan, which had been one of the pioneers of the electric vehicle with the Leaf, then let all its competitors take the advantage without any reaction on its part. Inovev believes that the production capacities that will fall to 4.5 million vehicles per year are still too high compared to the situation of the carmaker. It would be appropriate to reduce them again by 20% to set them at 3.6 million vehicles per year, a level that would seem more realistic.
Germany has regained its position as Europe's leading BEV market
- 说明
Germany has regained its position as Europe's leading BEV market
- Even if Germany had fallen behind the United Kingdom in the European market for battery electric vehicles in the first quarter of 2024 (following the end of subsidies granted by the German government on the purchase of battery electric vehicles), this country regained its leading position over the first 9 months of 2024, with 276,390 units (down 28.6% compared to the first 9 months of 2023) ahead of the United Kingdom (269,931 units, +13.2 %) and France (216,841 units, +6%).
- However, BEVs represent only 13% of the German market in the first 9 months of 2024, compared to 18% in the first 9 months of 2023, while in the United Kingdom they now represent 18% of the market and 17% In France.
- All European countries combined, BEVs represent 14.7% of the European market over the first 9 months of 2024, compared to 15.2% over the first 9 months of 2023, with a volume of 1,433,225 units compared to 1,472,190 units respectively.
- In terms of market share, Germany, the United Kingdom and France, the three countries which buy the most of BEVs in Europe, remain in the middle of the pack, far behind the Scandinavian countries, first and foremost Norway (88% of market share) followed by Denmark (48%), Sweden (34%) and Finland (28%).
- We also note the good performance of the Benelux countries (Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg) with BEV market shares of 27% to 32% depending on the country. Finally, Switzerland (19%) and Portugal (18%) do better than the United Kingdom or France. The countries located in Eastern Europe and Southern Europe remain the least favored (less than 7.5% BEV in these markets).